Property investors will see their existing paper profits shielded from proposed changes to the capital gains tax (CGT) discount. Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated that any new tax rules would “recognise the decisions that people have taken in the past.”
Proposed Shifts in Capital Gains Tax
The treasurer is widely expected to modify the current 50% tax discount applied to profits from the sale of assets held for more than one year. One potential path involves returning to a pre-1999 model where capital gains are adjusted for inflation.
As the government also considers negative gearing rules, experts and investors have suggested “grandfathering” these changes. This approach would ensure that new tax rules apply only to new investments.
Chalmers indicated that the government is mindful of “transitional issues,” suggesting that new CGT rules may only apply to future gains on existing investments.
Revenue Implications and Complexity
Luke Yeaman, CBA’s chief economist and a former Treasury deputy secretary, noted that applying new rules only to investments made after budget night would be the “simple, clean” option.
Yeaman warned that while a partial or staged form of grandfathering could bring in revenue more quickly, it would introduce a risk of added complexity to the system.
Despite speculation, Chalmers noted that people should not expect a “huge amount of new revenue” to appear in the budget over the next few years, even if the government pursues these paths.
Comparing Economic Models
Different estimates highlight the financial trade-offs of these policies. The Grattan Institute calculated that halving the CGT discount and phasing it in over five years for all investments would generate $6.5bn annually.
Conversely, CBA estimates suggest a fully grandfathered package—scrapping negative gearing and returning to the pre-1999 regime—would generate only $2bn in extra revenue during the first four years.
However, those benefits could grow over time. CBA estimates revenue gains of $25-30bn over the first 10 years, though the final result would depend on economic conditions.
Impact on Home Ownership
Chalmers signaled that scaling back tax breaks for landlords is not necessarily intended to make homes cheaper. Instead, the goal could be to rebalance the “composition” of home ownership by shifting it away from investors and toward owner-occupiers.
The treasurer highlighted a long-term trend of declining home ownership rates, suggesting that the 1999 changes to capital gains impacted the housing market’s composition.
He emphasized that the government is working to address “intergenerational issues” in the housing market and tax system, though he maintained that boosting housing supply remains the “main game” for affordability.
Economic modelling suggests that changes to investor tax settings could lift home ownership rates by three percentage points and potentially lower home prices by between 1% and 4% as investors are discouraged from buying.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will current property profits be taxed under the new rules?
According to Treasurer Jim Chalmers, massive paper profits earned by property investors in recent years will be shielded, as the government intends to recognise decisions made in the past.
What is “grandfathering” in the context of these tax changes?
Grandfathering is an approach where new tax rules would only apply to new investments, rather than affecting existing ones.
Could these tax changes lower the price of houses?
While the treasurer stated the government is not necessarily targeting a specific change in price, economic modelling suggests such changes could lower home prices by between 1% and 4%.
Do you believe shifting the balance of home ownership from investors to owner-occupiers will improve long-term housing affordability?
