Olive oil production forecasts in Spain are retreating from “historic” levels as unseasonable May heat causes trees to shed fruit. According to Francisco Elvira, the olive oil lead for COAG, this weather shift threatens to undermine recent harvest expectations, even as Ministry data shows a 6% decrease in current oil supply.
Why are olive oil harvest expectations falling?
The arrival of heat during the month of May has begun to impact crop evolution by forcing trees to naturally regulate their load. High temperatures and unseasonable minimums are causing trees to select and shed part of their fruit.
This climatic volatility could lead to a significant reduction in output. The traditional olive association, OliveA, has warned that the upcoming harvest may decrease by up to 37% compared to the 2025/26 campaign, with particularly high concerns regarding pollination and flowering in Jaén.
How is the market responding to these production concerns?
Despite the potential for a lower harvest, producers are reporting an “adulterated” market where prices continue to decline. The price of olive oil has dropped by more than 7% in just four weeks, leaving extra virgin olive oil trading below 4 euros per kilo.
Industry actors are facing accusations of a “strategic withdrawal” of stocks. Producers claim the industry is performing massive buy-ups of oil early in the campaign—sometimes before olives even reach the mill—and utilizing imports from countries like Morocco and Tunisia to maintain pressure on prices.
What risks could impact the final yields?
The upcoming autumn is expected to be a critical factor for the industry. High temperatures and a lack of rain during September and October can disrupt lipogenesis, the crucial phase where oil forms inside the fruit.
The stakes for the final volume are high; a loss of only two points in the fruit’s fat yield can result in a 10% reduction in the total amount of oil produced at the mill. Additionally, while Tunisia recently saw a record harvest of around 450,000 tons, its upcoming season is expected to be “very weak,” which may limit the ability of operators to source low-cost imports in the future.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the olive oil harvest expected to be lower than initially predicted?
High temperatures in May have caused trees to shed fruit, and issues with flowering and pollination—particularly in Jaén—could reduce the harvest by up to 37% compared to the previous campaign.
How much have olive oil prices fallen recently?
The price of olive oil has fallen by more than 7% over a four-week period, with extra virgin olive oil prices sitting below 4 euros per kilo.
Why is the autumn season considered critical for oil production?
Autumn weather affects the lipogenesis phase. A small decrease in the fat yield of the fruit during this time can lead to a 10% drop in the total oil yield at the mill.
How will the upcoming autumn weather influence the final olive oil volumes for the season?
