Los Angeles County Voters Show Resistance to Measure ER Sales Tax Increase

Days after the polls closed in Los Angeles County, Measure ER—a proposed half-percent local sales tax increase intended to generate healthcare funds to offset federal cuts—appears to be losing. If the current trend holds, it would mark the first time in more than a decade that county voters have rejected a sales tax measure.

As of Friday evening, the votes were still being counted, with Measure ER trailing at 48.5% to 51.5%. L.A. County has processed and counted more than 1.6 million ballots, but election officials estimate that more than 540,000 ballots are yet to be counted.

The Purpose and the Debate

Measure ER would raise the county sales tax from 9.75% to 10.25% for five years, which would generate an estimated $1 billion a year for the county’s general fund. County supervisors approved a spending plan to use those dollars to offset cuts to Medi-Cal under the Trump administration’s “One Big Lovely Bill.”

Supervisor Holly Mitchell, who backed the measure, stated that while a sales tax increase was not ideal, the county is required by statute to be the “safety net level provider of last resort for healthcare services” after the federal government “pulled the funding rug out from under us.”

However, the plan is not legally binding, a detail that critics emphasized throughout the campaign. L.A. County Supervisor Kathryn Barger, the only supervisor to vote against the measure, appeared in a video ad urging voters to reject it.

“We all support quality healthcare, but Sacramento should step up before asking taxpayers to pay more,” Barger said. “And despite what supporters claim, the money goes straight into the county’s general fund with no guarantee where it will end up.”

The “Yes on ER” campaign, called Restore Healthcare for Angelenos, was led by St. John’s Community Health and raised nearly $10 million to message that federal cuts are “threatening hospitals and ERs.” The “No on ER” campaign, No Blank Checks LA County, was led by the L.A. County Taxpayers Association. The group raised less than $10,000 and argued that voters are rejecting “another bait and switch sales tax increase on top of the cost-of-living pressures families are already shouldering,” according to chairman Aidan Chao.

Economic Pressures and “Tax Fatigue”

Experts suggest that affordability concerns and “tax fatigue” may be eroding support even among traditionally tax-friendly voters. Fernando Guerra, a political science professor at Loyola Marymount University, noted that he expected the measure to pass by a margin of 5 percentage points or more. “So I am a little taken aback,” Guerra said. “It shows that there is something that’s going on with a very progressive voter in L.A. About, ‘OK, maybe enough taxes.’”

Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, noted that voters are feeling the impact of inflation and cost-of-living increases. “The less you earn, the more painful it is,” Yaroslavsky said, adding that the measure might not see the high margins of previous successful measures.

What May Happen Next

While Measure ER is currently trailing by about 44,000 votes, the final outcome remains uncertain. Because later mail-in ballots tend to skew toward Democratic voters, Yaroslavsky noted, “If that trend continues, it’s possible that ER could pass.” L.A. County officials plan to release new results daily until June 12, with regular updates continuing until June 26, before certifying the final results by July 2.

The election results may also reflect a broader trend in California. Susan Shelley, a spokesperson for the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, suggested that voters are frustrated that urgent needs “somehow can’t be funded without more tax increases.”

Looking toward the November election, several tax-related measures may land on the ballot. These include a proposed half-percent sales tax to provide additional funding for the Los Angeles Fire Department and a proposed one-time 5% tax on Californians worth over $1 billion to fund Medi-Cal programs. A statewide measure could potentially change the law to require a two-thirds supermajority of voter support to approve tax increases through citizens’ initiatives, rather than a simple majority.