The Kingpin Strategy: Effective Blow or Catalyst for Chaos?
For years, the primary approach to dismantling organized crime has been the “kingpin strategy”—the targeted removal of top-tier leaders to collapse the organization from the top down. The recent arrest of Audias Flores Silva, known as “El Jardinero,” a high-ranking leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), is a textbook example of this tactic.
However, history suggests that removing a figurehead is rarely a clean process. When a powerful leader is eliminated, it often creates a power vacuum. This void is frequently filled not by a single successor, but by competing factions within the same organization, leading to violent internal splintering.
We have seen this pattern emerge previously with groups like Los Zetas, the Beltrán Leyva cartel, and La Familia Michoacana. In these cases, the removal of top leadership didn’t finish the criminal activity; it fragmented the organization into smaller, more aggressive cells that fought for dominance, often increasing the level of local violence.
The Risk of Immediate Retaliation
High-profile captures often trigger immediate, violent responses designed to signal strength and intimidate the state. Following the death of CJNG founder “El Mencho,” a wave of violence swept through at least twenty states, resulting in the deaths of at least 25 members of the National Guard through ambushes, as well as the burning of buildings, and vehicles.
Even the more recent capture of “El Jardinero” saw a similar, albeit smaller, aftermath. In three cities within the state of Nayarit, roadblocks were established using burning cars, and local shops were targeted, forcing authorities to advise residents to remain indoors.
Beyond the Boss: Targeting the Cartel Infrastructure
There is a growing realization among security forces that arresting the “considerable boss” is not enough. To truly weaken a cartel, the focus must shift toward the structural pillars that allow the organization to function: the logistics, the financiers, and the accountants.
The operation that captured Audias Flores Silva demonstrated this shift. Along with the leader, authorities too arrested his accountant. This represents a move toward dismantling the financial architecture of the CJNG, targeting the people who manage the money and the movement of assets rather than just the people who issue the orders.
By targeting the “middle management” and professional services—such as accountants and lawyers—governments aim to disrupt the operational capacity of the cartel, making it harder for them to pay soldiers, purchase weaponry, or maintain clandestine airstrips.
For more on how international cooperation impacts these operations, see our guide on transnational security frameworks.
The Geopolitical Chess Match: Balancing Cartel Power
The fight against cartels is not just about law enforcement; it is often about maintaining a precarious balance of power. The rise of the CJNG was fueled in part by the weakening of the Sinaloa Cartel, which suffered numerous arrests and internal warfare over several years.
Security analysts, including David Saucedo, suggest that government interventions may sometimes be aimed at restoring a balance of power. By launching aggressive strikes against the CJNG, authorities may be attempting to prevent a single organization from achieving total hegemony over the drug trade, which would create a monolithic and potentially more dangerous entity.
The Role of High-Tech Surveillance
The evolution of these operations is also tied to technology. The capture of “El Jardinero” involved a sophisticated mix of drone monitoring and U.S. Aerial surveillance. This allows special forces to pinpoint targets with extreme precision, reducing the need for prolonged firefights and minimizing collateral damage.
The Paradox of High-Profile Arrests
Despite the prestige of capturing leaders with multi-million dollar bounties—such as the $5 million reward offered by the U.S. For Flores Silva—there is a persistent paradox: the drug trade continues to thrive.
Since the start of the war on drugs in 2006, over a hundred top cartel leaders have been arrested. Yet, the production, transport, and sale of illegal drugs have not stopped; in many cases, the trade has actually increased. This suggests that the market demand for narcotics is a far more powerful driver than the identity of the person running the cartel.
As long as the financial incentives remain astronomical, new leaders will emerge to fill the gaps left by those arrested or killed. The “business” of the cartel is often more resilient than the “leadership” of the cartel.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the “Kingpin Strategy”?
It is a law enforcement approach that focuses on arresting or eliminating the top leaders of criminal organizations to disrupt their command and control.
Does removing a cartel leader stop the drug trade?
Generally, no. While it disrupts specific operations, the overall trade is driven by market demand and often persists or grows as new leaders take over.
Why does violence often increase after a leader is arrested?
The removal of a leader often leads to internal power struggles and fragmentation, causing different factions to fight for control of the territory and resources.
What do you think? Does the “kingpin strategy” actually make regions safer, or does it simply trade one big problem for several smaller, more violent ones? Share your thoughts in the comments below or subscribe to our newsletter for more deep dives into global security trends.
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