The Shifting Sands of the Middle East: Three Potential Scenarios
The situation in the Middle East is incredibly dangerous, according to international law and policy expert Cecilie Hellestveit. Recent events, beginning with attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, have drawn in numerous countries in the region and beyond.
A Path Towards Negotiation and Regional Stability
One potential outcome and arguably the most likely, involves negotiations between Iran and the United States. This could lead to a broader agreement encompassing solutions for conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine. Such a resolution could create a “manageable situation” in both the Middle East and Europe in the coming years.
This scenario hinges on Iran accepting most of the demands previously rejected regarding its nuclear program. It also relies on a potential normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, potentially linked to the establishment of a Palestinian state. There’s also discussion of extending France’s nuclear umbrella over states bordering Russia, potentially including Ukraine.
“Then there’s an obvious opening for Ukraine to approach under the French nuclear umbrella, which isn’t part of NATO,” Hellestveit explained.
A Precarious Transition Phase in Iran
Another scenario involves a negotiated resolution, but one that results in a weak and unstable transition period within Iran. This could lead to prolonged regional instability, as various geopolitical actors – Russia, Gulf states, Turkey, Israel, Pakistan, and India – vie for influence.
“If this happens, we’re likely to enter a permanently more violent period for the Middle East,” Hellestveit warned.
Escalation and the Risk of Wider Conflict
The third, and most concerning, scenario is a full-scale escalation of the conflict. This could unfold in numerous ways, potentially drawing in more global powers and leading to a wider war.
According to FFI researcher Halvor Kippe, Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and longer-range missiles will inevitably invite further attacks. The question now is how Iran’s novel leadership will respond.
“Should they revoke Khamenei’s fatwa against developing nuclear weapons, withdraw from the non-proliferation treaty, and expel IAEA inspectors, they will invite new attacks,” Kippe stated.
The Role of Missiles and Potential for Regimes Change
Kippe also highlighted Iran’s potential to develop missiles capable of reaching Southern and Eastern Europe, and eventually, the United States. However, this development would likely trigger further aggression.
Some analysts believe the ultimate goal of the US is regime change in Iran. The shifting rhetoric from the Trump administration, according to Hilmar Mjelde, professor of political science at Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, is a strategic maneuver.
“When the US and Israel jointly eliminate Iran’s entire leadership, there can be no doubt that regime change is the goal,” Mjelde said.
The Danger of Uncontrolled Escalation
Mjelde believes the situation is spiraling out of control, with neither Iran nor the US and Israel able to dictate the course of events. He anticipates a potential military dictatorship in Iran, rather than a peaceful transition or a US-friendly government.
Did you know?
The bombing of Libya in 2011, led by the US, ultimately resulted in chaos, a potential outcome that could be mirrored in Iran.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What are the three main scenarios for the future of the Middle East? A negotiated solution involving Ukraine and Palestine, a precarious transition phase in Iran, and a full-scale escalation of the conflict.
- What is the role of Iran’s nuclear program in the current crisis? Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and longer-range missiles is seen as a major destabilizing factor.
- What is the potential outcome of a US-led regime change in Iran? Analysts suggest it could lead to a military dictatorship rather than a peaceful transition.
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