Mnangagwa slips out on secret Belarus trip, misses Malaba farewell

The Global Rise of “Constitutional Hardball”

Across the globe, a concerning trend has emerged that political scientists call “constitutional hardball.” This occurs when leaders use the letter of the law to violate the spirit of democracy, often by manipulating term limits to maintain a grip on power.

The move to extend presidential terms—shifting a deadline from 2028 to 2030, for instance—is rarely an isolated event. This proves often a calculated step in a larger strategy of democratic backsliding. By altering the foundational rules of the state, incumbents can effectively transform a temporary mandate into a lifelong tenure.

When constitutional safeguards are eroded, the risk of institutional decay increases. As legal experts and religious leaders often warn, these changes can weaken the independence of the judiciary and diminish the voice of the citizenry, leading to a concentration of power that is tricky to reverse through traditional electoral means.

From Ballots to Boards: The Shift Toward Indirect Elections

One of the most significant trends in modern power consolidation is the transition from direct presidential elections to indirect elections via parliament. On the surface, this may look like a streamlined administrative process, but in practice, it fundamentally alters the social contract.

By removing the direct vote, a leader no longer needs to appeal to the broader electorate. Instead, they only need to maintain the loyalty of a small group of Members of Parliament (MPs). This shifts the focus of political campaigning from public service and policy to internal party patronage and loyalty rewards.

The Risks of Indirect Mandates

• Loss of Popular Legitimacy: Leaders may be viewed as “appointed” rather than “elected,” fueling public resentment.
• Increased Party Infighting: When the presidency is decided by a small circle, internal party ructions—such as those seen between top military and political figures—become the primary driver of national policy.
• Erosion of Accountability: Without a direct mandate, there is less incentive for the executive to respond to the immediate needs of the population.

For more on how these shifts affect regional stability, see our analysis on Regional Stability and Governance.

The Strongman Network: Stealth Diplomacy in the 21st Century

In an era of hyper-transparency and social media, “stealth diplomacy” is making a comeback. Secret trips to allied nations, conducted without the usual fanfare of sirens and official delegations, signal a shift in geopolitical alignment.

We are seeing the rise of a “Strongman Network”—a web of alliances between leaders who share a preference for centralized control and a mutual disdain for Western-style democratic conditionalities. Partnerships with nations like Belarus often provide a blueprint for surveillance, security apparatus management, and the suppression of dissent.

These alliances are often strategic. By diversifying their international partners, leaders can bypass sanctions and secure loans or military aid from countries that do not require human rights benchmarks, further insulating the regime from domestic and international pressure.

The Fragility of Power: Internal Ruptures and Political Survival

Despite the appearance of absolute control, regimes built on personalized power are inherently fragile. The tension between a president and their vice-presidents or military chiefs is a recurring theme in authoritarian survival.

When a leader attempts to extend their term or change the rules of succession, it often triggers a “survivalist” reaction among the elite. Those who were once allies may perceive these moves as a threat to their own future ambitions, leading to clandestine power struggles within the ruling party.

History shows that the most volatile period for such regimes is the transition phase. Whether the transition is natural or forced, the lack of a clear, democratic succession plan often leads to instability, as different factions vie for control of the state apparatus.

You can read more about the history of power transitions in our guide to Understanding Democratic Backsliding.