The southwest monsoon is officially set to arrive in Kerala on June 4, 2026, marking a delayed start to the season after missing both the predicted May 26 onset and the normal June 1 date. While the monsoon stream had reached the Andaman Sea and South Sri Lanka as early as May 16, a cyclonic circulation near the Kerala coast had stalled its northward movement.
According to Neetha K. Gopal, Director of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), this system has now shifted, paving the way for the monsoon to cover the entire state within the next 48 hours. However, officials warn that this initial period of activity may be short-lived.
Did You Know?
June and July are critical months for the region, traditionally contributing more than 60% of the total rainfall received during Kerala’s four-month southwest monsoon season.
The Outlook for the Season
Despite the expected onset, the IMD anticipates that the monsoon current will lose its pace and rhythm after an initial seven-day period of stormy weather. This sluggish progression has raised significant concerns regarding the possibility of a deficient rainfall season across Kerala and the wider Indian subcontinent.
The forecast is further complicated by the development of El Niño conditions. The presence of unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific is expected to weaken the formation of rain-bearing systems over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, potentially increasing the risk of dryness throughout the region.
Expert Insight:
The correlation between delayed monsoons and subsequent summer drought is a well-documented trend in the region. Given the historical data from 2016 and 2023, where late onsets led to scanty rainfall and elevated temperatures, the current meteorological indicators suggest that long-term water management and agricultural preparedness may become critical priorities for the coming year.
Immediate Weather Alerts
In the short term, the IMD has issued an orange alert for Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam, and Thrissur for Wednesday, signaling the potential for intense rainfall. On Thursday, the orange alert will extend to eight districts spanning from Thiruvananthapuram to Thrissur.
The remaining districts across the state are currently under a yellow alert for both Wednesday and Thursday. Residents in these areas should remain prepared for isolated heavy rainfall as the monsoon current establishes itself across the mainland.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why was the monsoon delayed this year?
The progress of the monsoon current was hindered by a cyclonic circulation that remained close to the Kerala coast, preventing the establishment of monsoon conditions in the northern part of the state until its recent northward movement.
How does El Niño impact the monsoon?
El Niño conditions, characterized by warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, typically result in weaker rain-bearing systems over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, which can lead to increased dryness across the Indian subcontinent.
What are the potential consequences of a weak June rainfall?
Because June and July account for over 60% of the seasonal rainfall, a decline in precipitation during these months significantly increases the risk of drought conditions in the following summer season.
How do you think local communities can best prepare for the potential of a deficient monsoon season this year?
