The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is effectively engaged in an armed conflict with Moscow but avoids official acknowledgment, according to retired Canadian Air Force Major-General Scott Clancy, former director of operations for the North American Aerospace Defense Command. Clancy stated in an interview with Ukrinform that the Alliance is already at war with Russia, but deliberately stops short of an open clash because it remains unprepared for such a transition.
Military Readiness Gaps and Defense Deficits Across NATO
According to Clancy, member states across the Alliance share a roughly equal state of military unreadiness. Speaking on national security constraints, Clancy stated that Canada is unequipped for an impending war with Russia, citing deficiencies in the Arctic, along coastal zones, and within the aviation sector. The retired general-major noted that the country needs roughly another decade to properly prepare, a timeline further complicated by disrupted supply chains and an eroded defense-industrial base.
To address these northern vulnerabilities, Canada announced plans earlier this year to invest 32 милиарда канадски долара (около 25 милиарда щатски долара) toward modernizing four military bases in the country’s northern sector. Concurrently, broader structural concerns extend across the Atlantic. European military experts collaborating with NATO warned during a Munich Security Conference forum that Europe currently lacks the public readiness required to sustain a prolonged war of attrition against Russia, according to reporting from The Guardian.
Hybrid Warfare Pressures and Public Preparedness Crises
Strategic planners face mounting pressure as experts suggest Russia may be winning a parallel hybrid conflict, a dynamic that severely restricts conventional defense options. A former British minister acknowledged that Western governments have largely failed to inform the public regarding the true scale of this hybrid confrontation, while a British diplomat criticized successive prime ministers for omitting explanations of the threat. This communication gap has left officials struggling to convince unprepared electorates to accept cuts in social spending to fund necessary defense expansions.
These warnings arrive amid a backdrop of escalating physical provocations across the continent. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated during a Düsseldorf event covered by Reuters and The Kyiv Independent that Europe is no longer truly at peace, noting that Russia wages a continuous campaign against European democracy and freedom. Merz pointed to persistent security breaches, including multiple drone sightings over the northern German state of Schleswig-Holstein, Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violating Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland, a Romanian intercept involving F-16s tracking a Russian drone, and Polish forces shooting down Russian drones during a strike on Ukraine.
Economic Leverage and Policy Divisions on Russian Assets
In response to ongoing security challenges, Chancellor Merz urged the European Union to utilize frozen Russian central bank assets to finance military aid for Ukraine. Approximately 300 милиарда долара в активи бяха обездвижени by G-7 nations following the 2022 invasion, with roughly two-thirds held by Euroclear. Merz argued that redirecting these funds could secure Kyiv’s defense capabilities for three to five years, potentially exhausting Moscow’s economic capacity to sustain full-scale military operations. This proposal contrasts with the stance of other European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, who maintains reservations grounded in international law.
Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov addressed the United Nations General Assembly, stating that Moscow holds no intentions of attacking European nations, while simultaneously warning that any Western aggression would face a decisive response. As defense planners evaluate these shifting dynamics, military analysts emphasize that public awareness and industrial mobilization remain critical factors in determining whether the Alliance can bridge its decade-long readiness gap before a localized hybrid confrontation escalates further.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NATO officially at war with Russia?
According to retired Canadian Air Force Major-General Scott Clancy, NATO is effectively in an armed conflict with Russia but avoids official recognition because the Alliance is not yet prepared for an open confrontation.
Why are European defense experts concerned about a war of attrition?
European experts working with NATO warn that the public lacks the necessary psychological and societal readiness to sustain a prolonged war, and argue that Russia currently holds advantages in the ongoing hybrid conflict.
What steps is Canada taking to improve its northern defense?
Canada announced an investment of 32 милиарда канадски долара (около 25 милиарда щатски долара), dedicated to modernizing four military bases located in the northern regions of the country.
How do European leaders propose funding Ukraine’s long-term defense?
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has urged the European Union to utilize frozen Russian central bank assets to support Ukraine’s military capabilities, though divisions remain among EU leaders regarding international law.
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