NATO faces a “critical transition phase” for European security as a window of vulnerability opens on the alliance’s eastern flank, according to Finnish political scientist and former foreign policy institute head Mika Aaltola. During the NATO summit in Ankara, member states must address a growing gap between reduced U.S. engagement and the ongoing development of European defense capabilities, which risks inviting Russian aggression against the alliance’s collective defense commitments.
Why is NATO’s eastern flank currently vulnerable?
The security vacuum stems from a shift in the transatlantic burden-sharing model, often referred to as “NATO 3.0.” While the U.S. continues to provide nuclear deterrence and long-range capabilities, it is simultaneously reducing its conventional military presence in Europe. Mika Aaltola notes that this creates a “gray zone” period where Moscow may feel emboldened to test the credibility of Article 5—the principle that an attack on one member is an attack on all.
Article 5 is the cornerstone of the North Atlantic Treaty.
How could Russia test NATO without a conventional war?
According to Aaltola, Russia does not necessarily need to deploy tanks or infantry to challenge the alliance. Instead, Moscow may utilize “hybrid” methods to probe NATO’s resolve. These tactics include:
- Sabotage of critical infrastructure and undersea cables.
- Large-scale cyberattacks and interference in democratic elections.
- Disruption of civil aviation and satellite communications.
- The use of a “shadow fleet” to bypass sanctions and project power.
- Massive drone production to conduct localized, deniable strikes.
Aaltola warns that if the U.S. response to such incidents is limited to diplomatic statements rather than concrete, deterrent action, the credibility of the entire alliance could be undermined.
What are the criteria for success at the Ankara summit?
Mika Aaltola has outlined six specific benchmarks to measure the effectiveness of the current NATO summit in Ankara. These criteria focus on closing the current security gap and ensuring unity among members:
- Risk Mitigation: Developing clear strategies to reduce the frequency and impact of gray-zone provocations.
- Article 5 Credibility: Issuing a robust confirmation of the collective defense principle, specifically regarding hybrid threats.
- Industrial Scaling: Promoting joint defense procurement to accelerate weapon production.
- Workload Distribution: Clarifying the long-term division of labor between the U.S. and European allies.
- Ukraine Support: Strengthening long-term aid to Kyiv, including enabling Ukraine to manufacture U.S.-designed weapons that the U.S. cannot produce at scale.
How does the Ukraine conflict change the security landscape?
The ongoing war in Ukraine serves as a significant factor in European security calculations. Aaltola characterizes the cooperation with Ukraine as a “strong card” for NATO, noting that Ukrainian forces have demonstrated an ability to challenge Russian military reach, including through strikes deep within Russian territory.
Pro Tip: Tracking Defense Spending
While European nations have significantly increased their defense budgets, most are still working toward the 2030 and 2035 readiness targets set by the EU and NATO.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the “gray zone” in security policy? It refers to hostile actions that fall below the threshold of declared war, such as cyberattacks, disinformation, and sabotage, making them difficult for alliances like NATO to counter using traditional military force.
- Is the U.S. leaving NATO? No, but the U.S. is shifting its role. According to Aaltola, the U.S. is making its assistance more conditional while focusing on nuclear deterrence, requiring European nations to fill the gap in conventional ground defense.
- What is the goal of the Ankara summit? The summit aims to solidify unity, finalize the new division of labor between the U.S. and Europe, and address the immediate security challenges posed by hybrid warfare.
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