According to Uzbekistan’s migration authorities, 96,415 Uzbek citizens traveled from Russia back to Uzbekistan over a ten-day period between August 25 and September 5, averaging over 9,600 departures daily. While migration researcher Sherzod Eraliev at Lund University describes the figure as striking, he cautions against concluding that all individuals have abandoned Russia permanently, noting the absence of comparative data from the same period last year.
Regulatory Pressure and Surveillance Fuel the Decline
The recent departures reflect a broader downward trend in labor migration that has persisted since the start of the war in Ukraine, according to Eraliev. He attributes the shift to a combination of economic, regulatory, and security pressures. Russia has tightened administrative requirements for foreign workers, introducing higher costs, frequent document checks, and intensified police raids alongside heightened risks for those who lose legal residency status.
Surveillance measures have further complicated conditions for foreign laborers. Visum-free workers are increasingly required to use the Amina app, a tracking tool that reports user locations to authorities. Failing to transmit position data for more than three working days can result in removal from the migration register and subsequent deportation. “For many migrates, the calculation is no longer just about whether wages in Russia are higher than in Uzbekistan,” Eraliev explains. “They are also weighing legal uncertainty, how they are treated by authorities, security, and the possibility of finding work elsewhere.”
Military Service Fears and Expanding Job Markets
Concerns over the war in Ukraine also influence migration choices. Stories of migrants approached or urged to sign military contracts circulate widely among Central Asian workers and across social media platforms, shaping perceptions of Russia as an employment destination even among those not directly solicited. Individuals who have acquired Russian citizenship face distinct vulnerabilities, with documented cases of people originally from Central Asia losing their citizenship after failing to meet military registration requirements.
Did you know? Labor migrants currently account for roughly 4 to 5 percent of total employment in Russia, down from an estimated 8 to 10 percent in the early 2010s, according to Julie Helseth Udal at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI).
At the same time, Uzbek workers are increasingly exploring opportunities outside Russia. Eraliev notes that Uzbekistan is attempting to open labor markets in Europe, the Gulf states, Japan, and South Korea, offering migrants viable alternatives.
Economic Fallout for Russian Industries
The dwindling influx of labor creates significant economic challenges for Russia, which already faces demographic decline and labor shortages. "Landet står allerede overfor demografisk nedgang og mangel på arbeidskraft, og færre arbeidsinnvandrere kan forsterke problemet ytterligere," Udal notes, warning that falling inflows risk driving up wage pressure, corporate costs, and hindering economic growth.
Although migrants represent a smaller share of total employment than in past decades, they remain heavily concentrated in specific sectors such as construction, manufacturing, warehousing, and low-wage service roles. Consequently, the impact of labor shortages is more acute in these industries. While Russia attempts to recruit workers from alternative nations like India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam, Udal emphasizes that these numbers remain far below labor migration from Central Asia, where shared linguistic and geographic advantages historically smoothed the transition into the Russian labor market.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many Uzbeks left Russia recently?
According to Uzbekistan’s migration authorities, 96,415 Uzbek citizens returned home from Russia between August 25 and September 5.
What are the main reasons for the departures?
Researchers cite a combination of stricter administrative requirements, mandatory tracking apps like Amina, police raids, economic pressures, and fears surrounding military recruitment for the war in Ukraine.
Can other nationalities easily replace Central Asian workers in Russia?
Experts note that replacing Central Asian labor is difficult because workers from countries like India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam currently arrive in much lower numbers and lack the traditional linguistic and geographic ties to Russia.
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