The New Military Chessboard: Israel’s 60% Control Over Gaza

As of May 2026, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s declaration that Israel now controls 60% of Gaza marks a significant escalation in the conflict, far beyond the original ceasefire terms that called for withdrawal to the so-called “yellow line”. This shift signals a deliberate strategy to reshape the battlefield, not just militarily, but geopolitically.

Official statements from the Israeli government and military sources suggest a three-pronged approach:

• Targeted assassinations of Hamas leadership, including the recent killing of Azeddine al-Qassam commander Azzeddine al-Haddad and Hamas operations chief Bahia Baroud.
• Expansion of ground operations beyond the “orange line,” a new demarcation point further into Gaza.
• Systematic dismantling of Hamas’ infrastructure, including command centers and logistical networks.

Humanitarian Crisis and the Fractured Ceasefire

The ceasefire agreement brokered by the U.S. In October 2025—supposedly a step toward de-escalation—has proven fragile and ineffective. While Israel claims to have withdrawn to the “yellow line,” its expanded control over 60% of Gaza contradicts the agreement’s spirit. Meanwhile, the humanitarian toll continues to rise:

The international community’s response has been divided and inadequate. While the U.S. And EU continue to pressure for a negotiated solution, Iran-backed factions in Lebanon and Gaza accuse Israel of violating diplomatic efforts through relentless military operations. The risk of a broader regional spillover—especially involving Hezbollah—remains a looming threat.

What’s Next? Three Potential Scenarios for Gaza’s Future

1. Prolonged Military Occupation and “Administrative Control”

Israel’s expanded control over Gaza could lead to a de facto occupation, similar to the post-1967 West Bank model but with harsher security measures. This scenario would involve:

• Establishment of Israeli military governance in key areas.
• Restriction of Palestinian self-rule, with limited autonomy under Israeli oversight.
• Continued targeted assassinations to weaken Hamas’ residual influence.

2. Fragmentation and Warlordism

With Hamas leadership decimated, Gaza could descend into internal power struggles among rival factions, including Islamic Jihad, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and local militias. This would:

• Increase inter-Palestinian violence, destabilizing Gaza further.
• Create a vacuum for foreign actors (e.g., Iran, Qatar, or even private military companies).
• Make any future peace process nearly impossible without a unified Palestinian authority.

3. The “Jordanian Model” Revisited: Partition and Statehood

A long-term solution might resemble the 1994 Gaza-Jericho Agreement, where Gaza operates as a semi-autonomous entity under international supervision. However, challenges include:

• Israel’s reluctance to cede full control.
• The lack of a viable Palestinian leadership capable of governing.
• Economic collapse and brain drain, with over 50% of Gaza’s workforce unemployed (World Bank, 2025).

A Crisis Without End: The Humanitarian Time Bomb

Gaza’s infrastructure is in shambles. Hospitals, schools, and water treatment plants have been destroyed or rendered inoperable. The UN warns of an imminent collapse in public health, with:

• 90% of Gaza’s water supply unsafe for consumption (UNICEF).
• Cholera and malaria outbreaks spreading due to lack of sanitation.
• Food insecurity affecting 95% of households (FAO).

International aid groups are overwhelmed, with funding gaps and logistical hurdles preventing full-scale relief operations. The risk of a full-blown famine in 2027 looms if current trends continue.

Beyond Gaza: How This Conflict Could Reshape the Middle East

The Israel-Gaza conflict is no longer isolated. Its repercussions are being felt across the region:

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1. Lebanon’s Powder Keg

Hezbollah’s military buildup along the Israel-Lebanon border raises fears of a northern front. Recent clashes and skirmishes in the Golan Heights suggest a deliberate provocation strategy by either side to test Israel’s resolve.

2. Iran’s Shadow War

Iran’s five conditions for negotiations with the U.S.—released in May 2026—include demands for an end to Israeli aggression in Gaza. This positions Iran as a key mediator, but also as a potential spoiler if negotiations fail. The risk of proxy wars in Syria and Yemen could intensify.

3. The U.S.-Israel Alliance Under Strain

While the U.S. Remains Israel’s primary military and diplomatic backer, domestic pressures—especially from pro-Palestinian lobbies and progressive lawmakers—are growing. The Biden administration’s conditional aid approach may force Israel to reassess its tactics to avoid losing critical support.

Breaking the Deadlock: Potential Pathways Forward

1. Internationalizing the Ceasefire

A UN-led peacekeeping force could monitor Gaza’s borders and enforce a permanent ceasefire. However, this requires:

• Consensus among the P5+1 (U.S., Russia, China, UK, France, Germany).
• Israeli acceptance of third-party oversight.
• Palestinian unity under a recognized leadership.

2. Economic Reconstruction as a Carrot

Linking humanitarian aid to reconstruction could incentivize both sides to negotiate. For example:

• International funds for Gaza’s infrastructure tied to a demilitarization agreement.
• Israeli concessions on border crossings and trade in exchange for Palestinian security guarantees.

3. The Two-State Solution Revisited

While widely dismissed as dead, a phased approach could work:

• Immediate humanitarian ceasefire.
• Long-term land swaps and security arrangements.
• International guarantees for Palestinian statehood.

FAQ: Key Questions About the Gaza Conflict

What does Israel’s 60% control over Gaza mean?

It indicates a deliberate expansion beyond the original ceasefire terms, suggesting Israel aims to consolidate military dominance and dismantle Hamas’ infrastructure before any potential withdrawal.

Why is the ceasefire failing?

The ceasefire was asymmetric—Israel retained control over key areas while Hamas continued limited military activities. Without mutual trust and enforcement mechanisms, it was doomed to collapse.

Could Gaza become another Lebanon?

Possible, but unlikely in the short term. Lebanon’s conflict was multi-factional and foreign-backed. Gaza’s factions are less organized, and Israel’s military presence is far stronger.

What role does Iran play in this conflict?

Iran provides military funding, weapons, and training to Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Its recent negotiation conditions signal a shift from direct confrontation to diplomatic pressure.

Is a famine in Gaza inevitable?

Not inevitable, but highly probable without immediate intervention. The UN has warned that food stocks could run out by late 2026 if aid access isn’t restored.

What Can You Do?

This conflict is complex, but awareness and action matter. Here’s how you can stay informed and engaged:

• Follow reliable sources: Subscribe to Euronews, Al Jazeera, and BBC for balanced reporting.
• Support humanitarian efforts: Donate to UNRWA or Médecins Sans Frontières.
• Advocate for policy change: Contact your representatives to push for humanitarian pauses and diplomatic solutions.
• Educate yourself: Read International Crisis Group reports for deep dives into the conflict’s dynamics.

Share this article to spread awareness and keep the conversation going. The path to peace starts with understanding—and understanding starts with informed dialogue.

More on the Israel-Gaza Conflict

• How Targeted Assassinations Are Reshaping Hamas’ Leadership
• The Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza: A Timeline of Collapse
• Iran’s Role in the Middle East: Beyond Gaza
• Could a UN Peacekeeping Force Save Gaza?
• The Economics of War: How Gaza’s Collapse Affects Global Trade