The New START treaty, a key agreement limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, expired on Thursday, marking a significant shift in global arms control. The treaty’s end reflects a changing international security environment, increasingly influenced by China’s growing military power and the development of advanced military technologies.
What Did New START Achieve?
Signed in 2010, New START aimed to reset relations between the U.S. and Russia. It limited each country to a maximum of 1,550 deployed strategic offensive warheads – a nearly 30 percent reduction from the 2002 ceiling – and capped launchers and heavy bombers at 800. A crucial component of the treaty was the provision for mutual inspections of military sites, echoing the “trust but verify” approach championed by President Ronald Reagan.
Inspections Suspended
In August 2022, Russia suspended U.S. inspections of its military facilities, citing obstacles to Russian inspections within the United States. Since then, no inspections have occurred, effectively reducing New START to a commitment to stay within the agreed-upon limits. In September 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a one-year extension, an idea initially approved by U.S. President Donald Trump but never pursued.
According to Heloise Fayet of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), “This proposal concerned only the caps to the numbers of warheads, which is not the most important element when talking about arms control.” Fayet emphasized that the treaty’s most vital aspect – inspections and mutual verification – was not included in the proposal.
A Changing Nuclear Landscape
The treaty’s expiration has raised concerns about a potential new arms race, a possibility Pope Leo XIV urged the world to avoid on Wednesday. While the Kremlin stated it would act “responsibly” following the expiration, technical constraints may limit the speed at which either side could significantly increase its arsenal.
China’s growing nuclear capabilities and advancements in technologies like AI and space-based systems are further complicating the situation. While currently smaller than the U.S. and Russian arsenals, China is rapidly developing its nuclear forces, leading some analysts to warn of a “two nuclear peer problem” – the need to deter both Moscow and Beijing. Beijing has, so far, declined to participate in treaty negotiations.
Fayet noted that technological revolutions are “creating new ways to deter and constrain an adversary,” and suggested that future arms control efforts could focus on regulating delivery systems, incorporating new technologies, or prohibiting the use of AI in nuclear weapons.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did New START limit?
New START limited the U.S. and Russia to a maximum of 1,550 deployed strategic offensive warheads each, and capped the number of launchers and heavy bombers at 800.
When were inspections suspended?
Russia announced the suspension of U.S. inspections of its military sites on August 9, 2022, citing U.S. obstacles to Russian inspections in the United States. No inspections have taken place since.
What is the “two nuclear peer problem”?
The “two nuclear peer problem” refers to the potential challenge the United States faces in maintaining deterrence against both Russia and China simultaneously, particularly if constrained by a treaty only with Russia.
As the New START treaty ends, what role will transparency and verification play in maintaining stability in a rapidly evolving global security landscape?
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