The Shifting Sands of Modern Warfare: Why Norway and Europe May Be Preparing for the Wrong Fight
Recent warnings from Professor Tormod Heier of the Norwegian Defence College suggest a critical reassessment of European defense strategies is needed. He argues that current military build-ups are disproportionately focused on conventional warfare, while the most likely threats are far more insidious and less easily countered with traditional military might.
Beyond Tanks and Troops: The Rise of Hybrid Warfare
Heier’s core argument centers on the increasing probability of “hybrid” attacks. These aren’t the large-scale, direct military invasions often envisioned – and prepared for – but rather a complex blend of sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns. Think less tanks rolling across borders, and more severed undersea cables, disrupted power grids, and manipulated public opinion.
This isn’t a new concept. Russia’s actions in Ukraine, particularly in the lead-up to the full-scale invasion, demonstrated a sophisticated playbook of hybrid tactics. From cyberattacks targeting Ukrainian infrastructure to the spread of false narratives designed to sow discord, the conflict highlighted the vulnerability of modern nations to these types of attacks. The 2023 attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines are a stark example of the potential for critical infrastructure sabotage.
Critical Infrastructure: The New Battlefield
The vulnerability of critical infrastructure is a key concern. Subsea cables, vital for global communications and financial transactions, are particularly susceptible to sabotage. A single, well-placed attack could disrupt internet access and financial markets across Europe. Similarly, power grids, oil and gas installations, and even urban water supplies are all potential targets.
Did you know? A 2021 report by Lloyd’s of London estimated that a coordinated cyberattack on the global financial system could cause losses exceeding $3.5 trillion.
These attacks are often difficult to attribute, making retaliation complex and potentially escalating tensions. They also operate “below the threshold of war,” meaning they don’t automatically trigger a conventional military response, creating a gray zone where traditional rules of engagement are blurred.
The Polarization Problem: Weaponizing Information
Beyond physical sabotage, Heier emphasizes the threat of disinformation and influence operations. These campaigns aim to polarize societies, erode trust in institutions, and undermine democratic processes. Social media platforms have become fertile ground for the spread of false narratives, often amplified by bots and coordinated disinformation networks.
The 2016 US presidential election and the Brexit referendum are often cited as examples of how disinformation campaigns can influence public opinion. More recently, the spread of pro-Russian narratives surrounding the war in Ukraine demonstrates the ongoing threat.
What Does This Mean for Defense Spending?
Heier’s critique isn’t necessarily against increased defense spending, but rather argues for a shift in priorities. He believes that a significant portion of current investment is misdirected towards capabilities designed to counter a threat that is less likely to materialize. Instead, resources should be allocated to bolstering cybersecurity defenses, protecting critical infrastructure, and enhancing resilience against disinformation campaigns.
Pro Tip: Investing in public media literacy programs is crucial to building societal resilience against disinformation. Educating citizens about how to identify and critically evaluate information can significantly reduce the impact of false narratives.
Forsvarssjef Eirik Kristoffersen partially agrees, acknowledging that these threats require a different response than traditional military defense. He emphasizes that the primary role of the military remains defending against direct military attacks, but recognizes the need for other agencies – particularly law enforcement and intelligence services – to take the lead in addressing hybrid threats.
The Role of Law Enforcement and Intelligence
Effectively countering hybrid threats requires a whole-of-government approach. Law enforcement agencies need to be equipped with the skills and resources to investigate and prosecute cyberattacks and sabotage. Intelligence services need to be able to identify and disrupt disinformation campaigns. And there needs to be greater collaboration between these agencies, both domestically and internationally.
The EU has launched several initiatives aimed at strengthening cybersecurity and countering hybrid threats, including the European Cybersecurity Competence Centre and the Hybrid CoE (Hybrid Centre of Excellence). These initiatives demonstrate a growing recognition of the need for a coordinated response.
Looking Ahead: Adapting to the New Reality
The future of warfare is likely to be characterized by ambiguity, complexity, and a blurring of lines between peace and conflict. Nations that are able to adapt to this new reality – by investing in resilience, strengthening cybersecurity, and fostering public awareness – will be best positioned to protect themselves.
FAQ
Q: What is hybrid warfare?
A: Hybrid warfare combines conventional military tactics with cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and economic pressure to achieve strategic objectives.
Q: Is a large-scale Russian invasion of Norway likely?
A: Experts believe a full-scale invasion is unlikely, but hybrid attacks are considered a much more probable threat.
Q: What can individuals do to protect themselves from disinformation?
A: Be critical of information you encounter online, verify sources, and be aware of your own biases.
Q: What is the role of NATO in countering hybrid threats?
A: NATO is working to enhance its resilience against hybrid attacks through information sharing, training, and the development of new capabilities.
Want to learn more? Explore our articles on cybersecurity and NATO for deeper insights.
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