Ukraine’s fuel market has maintained stability through a diversified import strategy, yet profitability varies significantly between southern and western supply routes. According to Oleg Chykyda, CEO of the ZPEK group, the southern route currently yields negative profitability, leading his company to prioritize western imports. Data from the A-95 Consulting Group shows that western border routes accounted for 62% of diesel imports in early 2026, up from 52% in 2025.
Why Does the Southern Route Face Profitability Challenges?
The southern route is currently less economically viable for major importers compared to the western corridor. Oleg Chykyda, speaking at the Petroleum Ukraine Warsaw’26 conference, stated that his internal calculations show consistent losses on southern supply lines. While ZPEK possesses the capital to operate in the south, the company avoids the route due to these unfavorable margins. This divergence highlights that while infrastructure exists to move fuel, the cost-to-profit ratio remains a barrier for private operators.
How Did Diversification Prevent Fuel Shortages?
Ukraine’s fuel market avoided systemic shortages during the 2022 invasion and the 2026 Middle East escalations by utilizing a multi-modal import system. Industry participants at the “A Hellish Year” panel agreed that relying on a single border would have created a single point of failure. By splitting supply between the west and the south, companies ensured that regional geopolitical instability did not result in a total halt of fuel inflows.
Current Import Trends: West vs. South
The reliance on western supply routes has intensified over the last year. According to the A-95 Consulting Group, the share of diesel imports arriving via the western border rose from 52% in 2025 to 62% in the first five months of 2026. Conversely, the southern route’s share dropped to 38% (971,000 tonnes) during the same period. This shift reflects a strategic preference among importers for the logistical efficiency of western neighbors.
| Route | 2025 Share | 2026 (Jan–May) Share |
|---|---|---|
| Western Route | 52% | 62% |
| Southern Route | 48% | 38% |
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do importers prefer the western route for fuel?
Importers favor the west due to better profitability and access to specialized products like Arctic diesel, which is primarily produced in northern Europe, according to market discussions at the Warsaw’26 conference.
Is the southern route used at all?
Yes, the southern route accounted for 38% of diesel imports in the first five months of 2026. While some companies find it unprofitable, it remains a component of the broader national supply chain.
What is the biggest risk to Ukraine’s fuel supply?
Industry experts cite the potential for single-route reliance as a major risk. Maintaining a diversified system across both western and southern borders is the primary strategy for mitigating supply chain disruptions.
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