Benin: Jihadist Expansion and Political Tensions

Benin faces a growing threat from jihadist groups, particularly Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), operating in the north. Changes in the country’s defense posture could inadvertently create opportunities for insurgents. Limited security cooperation with neighboring Niger and Burkina Faso further complicates the situation.

Key Risks in Benin

• Persistent jihadist attacks could destabilize the country and fuel discontent within the military.
• Violence could spread eastward, potentially impacting the Borgou department.
• Political tensions surrounding the April presidential election could escalate.

Colombia: Violence Amidst Elections and Shifting Alliances

Colombia is bracing for a period of heightened political violence as it approaches elections. Armed groups are exploiting the electoral period to expand their territorial control. The potential for U.S. Interference in the election and escalating violence along the Colombia-Venezuela border add further complexity.

Key Risks in Colombia

• Election-related violence could exacerbate political polarization.
• U.S. Involvement could destabilize the political landscape.
• Escalating violence along the border with Venezuela could draw in additional actors.

Ethiopia: Fragile Truce and Regional Tensions

Ethiopia faces the risk of renewed conflict in Tigray due to rising tensions between federal authorities and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The potential for conflict with Eritrea remains high, particularly given the evolving dynamics in Sudan.

Key Risks in Ethiopia

• Escalation of tensions in Tigray could lead to full-scale conflict.
• A return to hostilities between Ethiopia and Eritrea could destabilize the Horn of Africa.

Israel/Palestine: A Precarious Ceasefire

The October 2025 truce in Gaza remains fragile, with continued Israeli attacks and dire humanitarian conditions. Challenges in implementing Phase 2 of the ceasefire, including ambiguities surrounding governance and reconstruction, pose significant risks.

Key Risks in Israel/Palestine

• The truce could collapse, leading to renewed large-scale conflict.
• Israel may accelerate repression and dispossession of Palestinians in the West Bank.