According to a new report released Thursday by the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO), the known population experiencing homelessness in Ontario climbed by more than 23 per cent over the past four years to more than 76,000 people, while provincial spending on homelessness programs is projected to decline to $708 million by 2028-2029.
The FAO report estimates that the unhoused population will increase by more than 15 per cent over the next three years, moving from 76,741 individuals in 2025-2026 to more than 88,000 people—specifically 88,859 individuals—by 2028-2029. This figure reflects the known population experiencing homelessness, meaning it excludes those who have not consented to being included.
Causes of the Increase and Program Spending Cuts
Declining housing affordability and strong population growth are driving the rising numbers, according to the fiscal watchdog’s findings. Even though an expansion of provincial measures and a boost in federal assistance for refugee claimants in 2025-2026 helped mitigate the rise in homelessness, households assisted by provincial homeless initiatives are anticipated to drop from 204,876 in 2025-2026 down to 187,205 by 2028-2029.
The FAO notes that this drop stems from the expiration of time-limited funding and lower base program spending. These affected initiatives include funding for emergency shelters, supportive housing, rent assistance and community outreach. Overall provincial spending on homelessness programs is projected to rise from $297 million in 2013-14 to $708 million in 2028-29, marking an average annual growth rate of 6.0 per cent. However, spending has fluctuated sharply in recent years, ranging from a high of $1.2 billion in 2020-21 down to $654 million in 2022-23, before hitting a projected $948 million in 2026-27.
Did You Know? During March of 2021, municipal governments across Ontario were instructed by the province to adopt a “by-name” registry to track local demographic data on unhoused individuals and facilitate their connection to available supports.
Regional Breakdown of Homelessness Across Ontario
Toronto tops the list for unhoused people, recording 19,462 in 2024-2025. Ottawa follows with 9,431, London with 4,576, Windsor with 4,007, and Hamilton with 3,744.
Despite Toronto’s high total—which declined 8.2 per cent over that time period—the highest growth from 2022-2025 was seen in Durham, Peel and York regions at 130.8 per cent, 90.5 per cent and 79.6 per cent, respectively.
Political Reactions and Opposition Responses
Opposition MPPs argue that the provincial trajectory is moving in the wrong direction. University-Rosedale NDP MPP Jessica Bell urged Premier Doug Ford to take immediate action through a press release, highlighting that families are grappling with escalating costs for housing and daily essentials while denouncing the unacceptable reality of individuals forced to sleep on sidewalks, in condo stairwells, or within public transit networks and libraries.
Lee Fairclough, Ontario Liberal MPP for Etobicoke Lakeshore and a contender for the party’s leadership, said the FAO report shows homelessness rising as supports are declining. “Every dollar that Ontario fails to invest in upstream prevention translates to pressure on shelters, hospitals and frontline workers, particularly in Northern Ontario,” Fairclough said, calling for a clear province-wide strategy. Kingston and the Islands Liberal MPP Ted Hsu pointed out that he asked for the FAO publication because the province had been depending on outdated, pre-pandemic metrics while the landscape of housing and homelessness has shifted considerably since then.
Kitchener Centre Green Party MPP Aislinn Clancy cautioned that climbing rates of homelessness will lead to additional fatalities, heightened hardship, and increased strain on public agencies and local enterprises, concurrently pressing the administration to construct supportive, transitional, and community housing alongside shielding tenants from “bad-acting” landlords, unlawful evictions, and steep rent increases.
In response, Michael Minzak, press secretary for Rob Flack, Ontario’s minister of municipal affairs and housing, countered that the report captures a moment in time instead of accounting for actual government spending or new investments. Minzak noted that the province has deployed historic financial backing toward mental health services to assist individuals in overcoming the severe cycle of substance abuse, while simultaneously equipping municipalities with the necessary resources to tackle homelessness and construct additional supportive housing.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the projected population of unhoused people in Ontario by 2028-2029?
Projections from the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario indicate that the identified homeless demographic will grow by upwards of 15 per cent, surpassing 88,000 individuals over the course of the coming three years.
Which municipality reported the highest number of unhoused individuals?
Toronto tops the list for unhoused people with 19,462 in 2024-2025, followed by Ottawa with 9,431 and London with 4,576.
Why are provincial homelessness program households supported expected to decrease?
The FAO reports that the number of supported households will fall due to an end in time-limited funding and lower base program spending.
What steps should the provincial government take next to address the rising unhoused population while managing municipal funding constraints?
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