The recent election defeat of Viktor Orbán has left Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico without his primary ally and political blueprint in Central Europe. For years, the two leaders maintained a strategic partnership centered on a “sovereign” foreign policy that leaned toward Russia and questioned support for Ukraine.
The Collapse of a Political Model
Beyond diplomatic cooperation, Robert Fico viewed Orbán’s regime of “elective autocracy” as a model for governance. This inspiration included the concentration of power, the dismantling of checks and balances and the systematic weakening of the rule of law from within.
Fico also utilized Orbán’s brand of national conservatism and persistent criticism of the European Union to appeal to his own voter base. This approach justified a shift away from social democratic values toward a more isolationist and confrontational stance within the EU.
The image of Orbán as a steadfast defender of sovereignty was further damaged by a leaked phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the recording, Orbán appeared as a submissive servant to the Russian leader, while communications between Hungary’s Péter Szijjártó and Russia’s Sergey Lavrov placed Slovak politics in a subordinate role.
A New Era in Hungary and the EU
The victory of Péter Magyar signals the end of the Hungarian-Slovak political alliance. Unlike Orbán, Magyar is described as a pragmatic national conservative who understands the high cost of EU isolation and the necessity of returning to functional alliances.
This transition is expected to bring a more assertive partner to the table for Slovakia. Issues that were previously ignored or “swept under the rug” under Orbán—such as the criminalization of criticism regarding the Beneš decrees and the import of migrants from Hungary—may now grow points of conflict.
Regional Realignment
The shift is already visible in regional diplomacy. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has signaled strong support for Magyar, including planned meetings in Warsaw rather than Bratislava, as was common during the Orbán era.
Tusk has described the Hungarian election result as vital for stabilizing the region and strengthening Hungary’s position. He indicated that Poland is ready to assist Hungary’s full integration into European structures and hopes to reactivate V4 cooperation aligned with the rest of Europe.
French President Emmanuel Macron has also characterized this transition as the beginning of a “new era” for both Hungary and Europe. Tusk suggested that while Fico remains complex, he may not represent a fundamental problem in European affairs now that Orbán is gone.
Fico’s Future Crossroads
Robert Fico now faces a pivotal decision regarding his political direction. He could potentially use this moment to return to the EU mainstream, or he may prioritize the need to retain a radicalized, pro-Russian, and anti-EU voter base.
In the latter scenario, Fico may find himself competing for voters with the far-right Republic party and relying more heavily on cooperation with Andrej Babiš. Still, without Orbán, Fico possesses significantly fewer “trump cards” to play when using the “Hungarian card” in domestic politics.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who replaced Viktor Orbán in Hungary?
Péter Magyar, a pragmatic national conservative and leader of the TISZA party, won the election.
How does this change the relationship between Slovakia and Hungary?
The victory ends the political alliance between the two governments, which was based on mutual interests in blocking EU initiatives and pursuing pro-Russian foreign policies rather than a natural agreement between the two nations.
What is the reaction from other EU leaders?
Donald Tusk of Poland and Emmanuel Macron of France view the change as a new era that could stabilize the region and better integrate Hungary into European structures.
Will Robert Fico pivot toward the European mainstream or double down on his isolationist policies?
