A new analysis reveals that major Australian cities face a growing risk of catastrophic fires similar to those that devastated Los Angeles in January 2025, claiming 31 lives and destroying 16,000 buildings.
Urban Fringe at Risk
The report, released by the Climate Council and Emergency Leaders for Climate Action, estimates that at least 6.9 million Australians living on the outskirts of capital cities are vulnerable. This challenges the traditional understanding of bushfires as primarily a rural or regional concern. Residents of Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Adelaide, Perth, and Hobart – particularly those in suburbs bordering bushland or grassland – are identified as being at heightened risk.
Former NSW fire commissioner and report co-author Greg Mullins described the findings as a “wake up call,” stating, “If you live in suburbia and think bushfires don’t concern you, think again.”
Similar Conditions to Los Angeles
The analysis points to striking similarities between the conditions that fueled the Los Angeles fires and those currently present in many Australian cities. The Los Angeles area experienced “climate whiplash” – a cycle of wet years leading to increased vegetation growth, followed by prolonged dry periods. This, combined with strong winds, created ideal conditions for rapid fire spread into suburban areas.
Australia is facing similar preconditions, including dry spells, parched forests, worsening fire weather, and the potential for strong wind gusts. Specific areas of concern include the Northern Beaches, Penrith, and the Blue Mountains in Sydney, and grasslands bordering Melbourne suburbs.
Elevated Fire Danger
The warning comes as parts of South Australia and Victoria brace for the most significant heatwave conditions since the “Black Summer” of 2019-2020. This summer’s seasonal outlook identifies elevated fire risk in western and southern Western Australia, central northern New South Wales, and southern Victoria, with long-term rainfall deficits across southern states. A rare sudden stratospheric warming event is also contributing to hotter and drier conditions than previously anticipated.
What Could Happen Next
If conditions continue to worsen, we could see an increase in the frequency and intensity of bushfires impacting urban areas. A rapid fire spread, driven by strong winds and abundant fuel loads, could overwhelm emergency services and lead to significant property damage and loss of life. Increased smoke haze could also pose a serious health risk to vulnerable populations.
The report suggests that increased investment in disaster preparedness, improved emergency service capacity, and retrofitting homes to meet modern bushfire standards could mitigate some of these risks. However, Mullins emphasizes that the most critical step is to “turn down the heat” through stronger action to reduce fossil fuel emissions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What areas are most at risk?
Residents on the outskirts of Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Adelaide, Perth and Hobart are exposed, particularly in suburbs bordered by bush or grassland.
How many homes are potentially vulnerable?
The report estimates that up to 90% of homes in these areas were built prior to modern bushfire standards, increasing the risk of ignition and fire spread.
What were the conditions like during the Los Angeles fires?
The Los Angeles fires burned in winter, driven by hurricane-strength winds, following a period of “climate whiplash” with wet years followed by extreme dryness.
As climate conditions continue to shift, how prepared do you think your community is for the increasing threat of urban bushfires?
Worth a look