Croatia enters Wednesday’s Group L match against Panama as the clear favorite, with the Opta supercomputer projecting a 63.0% win probability for Zlatko Dalic’s squad. Both teams seek their first points of the 2026 FIFA World Cup following opening-round defeats, with Croatia falling 4-2 to England and Panama suffering a late 1-0 loss to Ghana.
Why Croatia remains the statistical favorite
Despite a defensive lapse against England, data models favor Croatia to secure their first win of the tournament. According to Opta, Croatia triumphed in 63.0% of 25,000 pre-match simulations, while Panama’s chance of securing a historic first-ever World Cup victory sits at just 14.9%. Historical context provides some comfort for Croatia; although they lost their opener, they have reached the semi-finals in their last two World Cup appearances. Manager Zlatko Dalic has navigated similar starts before, as the team has lost their opening match in four of their last six tournament entries.
Luka Modric’s appearance against England made him only the second European player in history to feature in 10 different major tournaments. He trails only Cristiano Ronaldo, who has reached 12.
How Panama is evolving its tactical approach
Panama displayed a significant shift in playstyle during their loss to Ghana, moving away from a purely defensive shell. Thomas Christiansen’s side recorded 62% possession and completed 502 passes, figures that dwarf their historical tournament averages. Defender José Córdoba anchored this transition by attempting 101 passes, nearly matching the total output of individual players during Panama’s entire 2018 campaign. While the team has yet to score in four all-time World Cup matches, the introduction of Gold Cup Golden Boot winner Ismael Díaz could provide the clinical edge needed to break their scoreless drought.
What history tells us about CONCACAF vs. Europe
The matchup highlights a recurring trend in international football: the struggle of CONCACAF nations against European opposition. According to tournament records, CONCACAF teams have won just one of their last 24 matches against European sides. Croatia, however, has also struggled to find consistency against teams from the Americas, losing seven of their last 10 World Cup meetings against such opponents. The sole clean sheet in that stretch for Croatia came during a 3-0 victory over Argentina in 2018, underscoring a defensive vulnerability that Panama may attempt to exploit.
Pro Tip: Monitoring the midfield battle
Keep an eye on Mateo Kovacic’s potential return to the starting lineup. With Luka Modric playing his fewest minutes in a major tournament opener (58 minutes) against England, Dalic may look to Kovacic to provide the engine room support necessary to control the tempo against a possession-heavy Panama side.
Frequently Asked Questions
Have Panama and Croatia ever played each other before?
No. This Wednesday’s clash in Toronto marks the first time the two nations have met in a World Cup fixture.
What is Panama’s record in the World Cup?
Panama has lost all four of their World Cup matches to date, conceding 12 goals and scoring only twice. They are currently seeking their first point in the competition.
Why did Croatia lose their opening match?
Croatia fell 4-2 to England after struggling to contain the opposition’s momentum in the second half. Despite high pressure—recording 187 high presses against England—they could not sustain their defensive intensity for the full 90 minutes.
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