Viktor Zubkov, the chairman of Gazprom’s board of directors and a long-time associate of Vladimir Putin, has been holding clandestine meetings with former high-ranking German officials in Baku, Azerbaijan, since 2024. According to investigations by Die Zeit and the ARD program Kontraste, these sessions are viewed by Western intelligence services as a calculated Russian influence operation targeting German political circles.
The Baku Connection: Who is Meeting and Why
The meetings involve prominent German figures who, despite being out of office, maintain deep ties to Germany’s governing parties. Among the participants are Ronald Pofalla, former head of the Federal Chancellery, and Matthias Platzeck, the former minister-president of Brandenburg. Die Zeit reports that Pofalla and Zubkov share a close personal relationship, rooted in their former roles as co-chairs of the “Petersburg Dialogue,” a bilateral forum once backed by Putin and Gerhard Schröder.
The Russian delegation in Baku is high-level. Alongside Zubkov—who served as Russia’s prime minister from 2007 to 2008—the group has included Valery Fadeyev, chairman of the Russian Human Rights Council, and Alexey Gromyko, director of the Institute for Europe at the Russian Academy of Sciences. Intelligence reports suggest the Russian goal is to convince these German interlocutors that ending the war in Ukraine is possible only on Moscow’s terms and that a post-war normalization of relations must be prioritized.
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The “Petersburg Dialogue” was established in 2001 to foster German-Russian ties. Although the German side officially withdrew from the forum in April 2023, the individuals meeting in Baku continue to leverage the platform’s name to frame their private discussions.
Intelligence Assessments and the “Baku Affair”
Security services in Germany and across the European Union are monitoring these developments closely, with some officials in Brussels labeling the situation the “Baku affair.” The concern is not merely the content of the discussions, but the strategic use of former officials to maintain back-channel influence.
Stefan Meister, an expert on German-Russian relations at the German Council on Foreign Relations, argues that these meetings serve a propaganda function rather than a diplomatic one. According to Meister, the Russian side is aware that their German interlocutors are “politicians of the past,” yet they remain valuable because they retain access to current high-level political circles. By sitting down with figures like Zubkov and Fadeyev, German participants risk legitimizing a state apparatus that has shown no interest in constructive negotiation, Meister told Die Zeit.
Strategic Influence and the Role of the Institute for Europe
The methodology behind these meetings appears to follow a documented strategy. As revealed by Die Zeit and Kontraste earlier in 2024, the Institute for Europe—led by Gromyko—recommended that the Russian leadership utilize existing channels to amplify German fears regarding a potential conflict between NATO and the Russian Federation.
The international nature of the group extends beyond German borders. Former Swiss ambassador to Berlin Tim Guldimann and former OSCE Secretary General Thomas Greminger have also been present at these meetings. Their participation underscores the effort to broaden the scope of these discussions, even as the core purpose remains aligned with Russian geopolitical objectives.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary concern regarding the meetings in Baku?
Western security services and experts view the meetings as a Russian influence operation designed to exploit the connections of former German officials to sway current government policy toward Russia’s preferred terms for ending the war in Ukraine.
Who are the key Russian participants?
The delegation is led by Viktor Zubkov, chairman of Gazprom and a veteran official who has worked with Putin since their time in the Saint Petersburg mayor’s office. Other notable attendees include Valery Fadeyev and Alexey Gromyko.
Are these meetings official diplomatic negotiations?
No. Experts like Stefan Meister emphasize that these are not part of a formal peace process but are instead “meetings with problematic individuals” intended to serve the interests of the Russian state.
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