Russian Military and Security Factions Push for Mobilization as Advances Stagnate
In a significant development, leading analysts have noted a report by Meduza, indicating that Russian security services and military may acknowledge that Russian forces are not achieving substantial territorial gains proportional to the losses in personnel and equipment they are incurring. The military theory of Russian President Vladimir Putin has thus far accepted heavy personnel casualties in exchange for tactical advancements, which have not translated into major operational successes on Ukrainian territory.
However, the report suggests a slowdown in Russia’s advance, with the average daily gains halving to approximately 9 square kilometers in December 2024 compared to the previous three months. This deceleration follows a pattern of increasing territorial gains and personnel losses from September through November. The Russian military command, it seems, may be less inclined to sustain such high casualties if the advance continues to slow down, while Putin’s resolve to persist with these losses remains unyielding.
The Russian military and security agencies, rather than abandoning the conflict, are urging Putin to escalate military efforts. Key recommendations include imposing a partial conscription of reservists and declaring a state of martial law. The objective appears to be});
Analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
ISW analysts contend that Putin has thus far resisted implementing a partial forced conscription or further mobilizing the Russian economy due to the unpopularity of such measures among the Russian populace and the potential exacerbation of labor force and economic shortages.
Yet, it remains unclear whether the Russian military and security factions advocating for further mobilization of labor and the economy will persuade Putin to adopt more radical measures to support the war effort against Ukraine. However, with mounting personnel losses and challenges in voluntary recruitment, ISW posits that increasing pressure may force Putin to impose a partial conscription of reservists in the near future.
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