The Shifting Sands of College Football: Lessons from a Wild 2025 Season
The dust has settled on the 2025 college football season, crowned by Indiana’s improbable championship victory over Miami. But beyond the confetti and celebrations, this season, as meticulously ranked week-by-week by The Athletic’s comprehensive “Athletic 136” rankings, revealed deeper trends that are reshaping the landscape of the sport. It wasn’t just about who won, but *how* they won – and who dramatically underperformed expectations.
The Rise of the Unexpected Champion
Indiana’s triumph isn’t an isolated incident. The 2025 season underscored a growing unpredictability in college football. The expanded playoff format, while intended to broaden access, has arguably amplified the potential for upsets. Teams that might have been overlooked in a four-team system now have a legitimate path to the championship. This is a direct consequence of the increased parity, fueled by the transfer portal and Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals.
Historically, a handful of programs – Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State – dominated the championship conversation. Now, programs like Indiana, Virginia, North Texas, and Houston are proving that sustained success isn’t solely dependent on recruiting rankings or tradition. This democratization of opportunity is a thrilling development for fans, but it also presents challenges for forecasting future contenders.
The Transfer Portal’s Accelerating Impact
The Athletic 136 rankings highlighted the volatility created by the transfer portal. Miami’s rapid ascent from No. 8 to No. 2 demonstrates how quickly a team can retool its roster. While the portal has always been a factor, its influence is becoming increasingly pronounced. Teams are no longer built over years; they’re often assembled in a matter of months. This creates a constant state of flux, making preseason predictions – as evidenced by the miscalculations regarding Penn State and Clemson – increasingly unreliable.
Consider the case of Iowa, jumping from No. 33 to No. 16 based on a single win over Vanderbilt, boosted by the Hawkeyes’ subsequent bowl performance. This illustrates how a single transfer or a well-timed bowl victory can dramatically alter a team’s trajectory and ranking.
NIL and the Widening Gap
While the transfer portal facilitates player movement, NIL deals are the engine driving it. The ability to attract and retain talent through lucrative NIL opportunities is creating a widening gap between programs with deep-pocketed boosters and those without. This isn’t necessarily about “paying” players directly, but about providing them with opportunities to capitalize on their personal brands.
The struggles of traditionally strong programs like Penn State, Clemson, and LSU suggest they may be falling behind in the NIL arms race. These programs, accustomed to dominating recruiting, are now facing competition from schools that can offer more attractive financial packages. This trend is likely to continue, potentially leading to a further concentration of power among a select few institutions.
Bowl Games: More Than Just Exhibition
The Athletic 136’s methodology of factoring in bowl game results, while acknowledging opt-outs, is a smart approach. Bowl games are no longer simply exhibitions; they’re opportunities for teams to build momentum, showcase talent, and improve their rankings. The rise of teams like Virginia and TCU, fueled by impressive bowl performances, underscores this point.
However, the impact of opt-outs remains a significant challenge. Teams missing key players in bowl games can suffer a disproportionate loss, potentially skewing the rankings. Finding a balance between recognizing postseason success and accounting for roster limitations will be a key consideration for future rankings.
The Mountain West’s Quiet Strength
The tight race in the Mountain West Conference, culminating in a four-way tie, highlights the growing strength of Group of Five conferences. New Mexico, San Diego State, Boise State, and UNLV all demonstrated the ability to compete at a high level. This suggests that the Power Four structure may be due for reevaluation, as these conferences continue to produce competitive teams.
The success of these programs is a testament to strong coaching, effective player development, and a commitment to building a winning culture. It also demonstrates that geographic location and traditional recruiting advantages aren’t the only determinants of success.
Looking Ahead: What to Expect in 2026
The 2025 season served as a wake-up call for college football. The era of predictable dominance is over. Expect to see even more volatility in the coming years, driven by the continued evolution of the transfer portal and NIL. Programs that can adapt to these changes – by embracing innovative recruiting strategies, fostering strong relationships with boosters, and prioritizing player development – will be best positioned for success.
The focus will shift from simply accumulating talent to effectively integrating it into a cohesive team. Coaching will become even more critical, as coaches will need to navigate the complexities of roster management and NIL compliance. And, perhaps most importantly, fans should prepare for the unexpected. The days of easy predictions are gone.
FAQ
Q: Will the transfer portal continue to disrupt college football?
A: Absolutely. The portal is likely to become even more active as players seek opportunities to maximize their NIL potential and compete for championships.
Q: How will NIL impact recruiting?
A: NIL will play an increasingly significant role in recruiting, as programs compete to offer players lucrative endorsement deals.
Q: Are bowl games still meaningful?
A: Yes, bowl games provide valuable opportunities for teams to build momentum and showcase their talent, but opt-outs can impact their significance.
Q: Will the Power Four structure change?
A: It’s possible. The continued success of Group of Five conferences may lead to a reevaluation of the current structure.
Did you know? Indiana’s championship run was the first by a Big Ten team since 2014.
Pro Tip: Pay close attention to teams that are actively utilizing the transfer portal and securing significant NIL deals. These programs are likely to be contenders in the coming years.
What did you think of the 2025 season? Share your thoughts in the comments below! Explore more college football analysis here. Subscribe to our newsletter for the latest updates and insights.
