Nearly 15 million displaced people returned to their homes last year, a 50 percent increase compared to 2024. According to Victoria Rietig, head of the migration program at the German Council on Foreign Relations, this surge is rarely driven by improved conditions in home countries. Instead, it reflects mounting pressure, hostile policies in host nations, and shrinking global humanitarian support.
Why Are More Refugees Returning Home?
The global rise in returnees—totaling 14.7 million people—is split between two distinct groups. Approximately 10 million were internally displaced, while 4.4 million had fled to other countries. Rietig notes that these movements are primarily a reaction to worsening conditions in host nations rather than genuine safety in their home countries.
In Afghanistan, which saw the largest movement with nearly two million returnees, the trend was driven by strict government deadlines in neighboring countries. Iran mandated that Afghan refugees depart or face deportation by July 2025, while Pakistan set a deadline of April 2025. These state-led campaigns forced a mass exodus from host countries back into a precarious domestic situation.
Did you know? Many returnees are choosing to go back not because they see a future at home, but because they view it as the "lesser evil" compared to the risks of staying in their host country.
How Do Host Nation Policies Drive Return Trends?
Host nations are increasingly employing restrictive policies that make seeking refuge less attractive. Rietig points to a combination of intentional government-led deterrence and the unintended consequences of regional conflicts. In Egypt, for example, many Sudanese refugees face detention, deportation, and racially motivated attacks.
These conditions create a "push factor" that outweighs the risks of returning to conflict zones. Furthermore, a global reduction in humanitarian aid—such as the transition from organized tent shelters to makeshift cover—increases the daily hardship for displaced people. As conditions deteriorate in host countries, the perceived viability of returning home shifts, even when home remains unstable.
What Is the Long-Term Sustainability of These Returns?
Policy experts argue that current return figures should not be mistaken for a sign of global stabilization. While the fall of the Assad regime in Syria provided an "intrinsic will" for many to return—with UNHCR surveys indicating seven out of ten returnees feel safer than before—this remains an exception.
Rietig warns against romanticizing these numbers. In many cases, returns occur because displaced people have run out of options. If returnees are heading back to environments that lack infrastructure and security, the cycle of displacement is likely to continue. The sustainability of these movements depends on whether host countries continue to divest from refugee support, a trend that experts expect to persist throughout the coming year.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are these return numbers a sign that conflicts are ending?
No. According to Victoria Rietig, the increase is driven by pressure in host countries and reduced international aid, rather than improved safety in home countries.
Which countries are seeing the highest number of returnees?
Afghanistan experienced the highest volume of returnees in 2025, largely due to government-enforced deadlines in Iran and Pakistan.
How does humanitarian aid impact return decisions?
When aid is cut, the quality of life in host countries drops. This creates a stronger incentive for refugees to leave, even if their home country remains dangerous.
Is this trend expected to continue?
Migration experts anticipate the trend of worsening conditions in host countries and fewer global options for refugees will continue through the current year.
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