Report exposes Pakistan’s fragile and under-resourced police system

The Cost of Neglect: Why Pakistan’s Police Crisis is a Ticking Time Bomb

For years, the narrative of security in Pakistan has been dominated by the movements of the military. But beneath the surface, a more fragile shield is cracking. The provincial police—the first responders to militant attacks and the primary face of law enforcement—are operating on a shoestring budget and a broken promise of protection.

When the personnel most targeted by insurgents are also the least compensated, the result isn’t just a resource gap; it’s a systemic vulnerability. The current trajectory suggests that without a radical shift in how internal security is funded and managed, the state risks a total collapse of law and order in its most volatile regions.

The Economic Incentive for Instability

Money is rarely the only motivator in security, but We see the foundation of loyalty. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), where the threat of militancy is highest, salaries are among the lowest. This creates a dangerous vacuum.

When a constable earns a fraction of what is required to support a family in a high-inflation economy, they become susceptible. We are seeing a trend where “insider threats” are no longer anomalies but systemic risks. The case of a serving constable facilitating a massive attack on a police mosque in Peshawar is a grim preview of the future.

If the state continues to underpay those it asks to die in the line of duty, the incentive for militants to “buy” intelligence or access from within the force will only increase. Financial desperation is a powerful recruitment tool for insurgent groups.

The “Hard Area” Dilemma

Efforts to grant “hard area” status to volatile districts are a step in the right direction, but they are often too little, too late. To truly stabilize these regions, the government must move beyond incremental raises and implement a risk-based compensation model that mirrors the incentives found in elite military units.

The Dangerous Divide: Khaki vs. Green-and-Blue

There is a stark disparity between the resources allocated to the army (the khaki) and the provincial police (the green-and-blue). While the military is equipped with cutting-edge intelligence and hardware, the police are often left with outdated weaponry and insufficient tactical gear.

This divide creates a “security gap.” Militants have realized that the police are the “soft target.” By attacking police checkpoints instead of military bases, they achieve high casualty rates with lower risk. This strategy effectively hollows out the state’s civil administration, leaving cities and towns without a functioning police presence.

Future trends suggest that unless the police are “militarized” in terms of equipment and training—without losing their civil character—they will continue to serve as a sacrificial layer of defense.

A Judicial Pipeline in Collapse

Security is not just about the arrest; it is about the conviction. Currently, the prosecutorial pipeline in Pakistan’s anti-terrorism courts is essentially broken. With a conviction rate as low as 17% in some regions, the legal system is failing the remarkably officers who risk their lives to make arrests.

When thousands of cases languish in a backlog, it sends a clear message to militants: the state cannot hold you accountable. This culture of impunity emboldens attackers and demoralizes the police force. Why risk a bullet in a checkpoint if the perpetrator will likely never see a jail cell?

The future of Pakistan’s internal security depends less on more boots on the ground and more on a functional courtroom. Without judicial reform, police bravery is essentially a wasted resource.

Case Study: The Peshawar Police Lines Tragedy

The years-long delay in the trial for the Peshawar mosque bombing serves as a cautionary tale. When a case remains in the “pre-trial stage” for years, evidence vanishes, witnesses are intimidated, and the deterrent effect of the law evaporates. What we have is a pattern that, if left unchecked, will lead to a total loss of public trust in the police.

Future Outlook: Three Possible Scenarios

As we look ahead, the intersection of underfunded policing and rising militancy will likely lead to one of three outcomes:

• The Reform Path: The state implements a unified pay scale, invests in police tactical gear, and clears the judicial backlog, leading to a professionalized force capable of holding territory.
• The Militarization Path: The police are completely subsumed by military command, effectively turning civilian areas into occupied zones, which may provide short-term security but increases long-term local resentment.
• The Collapse Path: Continued underfunding leads to widespread insider betrayal and a retreat of the police from rural districts, leaving “no-go zones” where militants operate with total autonomy.

For more insights on regional stability, you can explore reports from The Diplomat or check out the latest security indices from the United Nations.

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