A new research tool tracking cell phone activity has revealed a 42% drop in visitors from Canada to major metropolitan areas in the United States. This figure is significantly higher than official border-crossing data, which indicated a decline of roughly 25%.
Researchers from the University of Toronto reported a “year-over-year median decline of approximately 42% in Canadian visits to US metropolitan areas – significantly higher than official border-crossing data, which showed a roughly 25% decline.”
Drivers of the Travel Decline
The decline is attributed to several factors during the second Trump administration, including border crackdowns and immigration enforcement operations. Travelers have also expressed anger over Donald Trump’s tariffs and his threats regarding making Canada “the 51st state.”
The impact is being felt heavily in US border towns that rely on Canadian traffic. However, the decline extends far beyond the border, with steep drops in visitors to cities in New Hampshire, Vermont, and New York.
Impact on Tourism and Industry
Major tourist destinations, including Walt Disney World and Las Vegas, have seen a decrease in Canadian visitors. Florida, typically a primary hub for overwintering Canadians, has also experienced declines in winter recreation area visits.
The researchers were particularly struck by “the marked decline in visits to large metropolitan economies.” They noted that “high-tech and financial centers like San Francisco and Houston appear to be experiencing reductions not only in tourists but also in business-related travel, reflecting changing travel preferences due to broader economic uncertainties on both sides of the border.”
Karen Chapple, director of the School of Cities at the University of Toronto and a co-author of the report, highlighted a specific decline in travel to Grand Rapids, Michigan. Chapple noted the city has “deep economic connections with Ontario because of the auto industry.”
According to Chapple, “there used to be a lot of back and forth between the two places” for work. This pattern has shifted since the US imposed tariffs on certain Canadian goods, including vehicles.
Analyzing the Data Gap
The researchers provided potential explanations for why the 42% cell phone figure exceeds border-crossing estimates. They noted that cell phone data captures freight traffic, which official border crossings do not.
the data tracks Canadians who previously lived in the US and have since left. The researchers suggested that the decrease in activity “may reflect return migration to Canada.”
Broader government data supports a general downward trend. Canadian government figures show that Canadian-resident return trips from the US fell by 25% in 2025, while trips to Canada by US residents decreased by 7.5%.
Future Outlook
Economic stability in US border towns and metropolitan hubs could remain volatile if travel preferences continue to shift. If tariffs persist or border enforcement remains strict, business-related travel in the auto and tech sectors may continue to decline.
The trend of return migration to Canada could further widen the gap between official border statistics and actual metropolitan activity in the coming years.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the cell phone data showing a larger decline than border-crossing data?
Researchers noted that cell phone data captures freight traffic, which border crossings do not, and it may also reflect return migration of Canadians who previously lived in the US.
Which US cities have seen a decline in business-related travel?
High-tech and financial centers such as San Francisco and Houston have experienced reductions in both tourist and business-related travel.
How have tariffs affected travel to Michigan?
Travel to Grand Rapids, Michigan—a city with deep auto industry connections to Ontario—has declined since the US imposed tariffs on Canadian goods, including vehicles.
Do you believe economic uncertainties will continue to reshape international travel patterns between neighboring countries?
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