Economist Ricardo Hausmann is sharply critical of the current path toward economic recovery in Venezuela, arguing that the recent reopening of the oil sector, backed by the United States, lacks a solid political and legal foundation. Speaking from his experience as a former minister of Planning in Venezuela and chief economist of the Inter-American Development Bank, Hausmann asserts that genuine economic normalization hinges on credible elections, the restoration of rights, and control over armed groups.
A Fragile Foundation for Recovery
Hausmann contends that investors prioritize civil liberties, institutional stability, and state security over mere rates of return or contractual frameworks. He points to the ongoing presence of political prisoners, restrictions on the press, and a suspended electoral system as eroding confidence faster than any legal reform can restore it. The emigration of skilled workers, particularly within the oil sector, further complicates the prospect of long-term investment.
The economist questions the roadmap imposed by Washington, stating that the oil agenda has advanced without a public electoral timeline, a reconstituted electoral authority, or the full rehabilitation of political parties. He warns that without these elements, politics have been reduced to declarations while detentions, judicial controls, and parallel armed structures persist. “The country cannot live on promises: only on verifiable decisions,” Hausmann stated.
Legitimacy Concerns with the Hydrocarbon Law
While acknowledging the recent reform of Venezuela’s hydrocarbon law, Hausmann expressed skepticism about its legitimacy, as it was approved by an illegitimate National Assembly with votes tallied by a compromised National Electoral Council. He believes that the law would be more credible if approved by broad majorities representing all political viewpoints. He emphasized that potential oil investors will consider these factors.
The Path Forward: Elections and Democratic Reform
Hausmann insists that free and fair elections are paramount. He calls for a clear timeline for elections and a discussion on the establishment and selection of a legitimate National Electoral Council. He argues that the United States should prioritize the free functioning of political parties and the cessation of judicial interference that disables their operation. Restoring the political rights of citizens, opening the electoral registry to those abroad, and allowing young people to register are similarly crucial steps.
He further stated that the current situation is precarious, with political prisoners being released only to be replaced by others, and restrictions remaining on those who are freed. He also noted that a lack of press freedom is evident, citing the fact that Venezuelan media did not report on María Corina Machado winning the Nobel Prize in October.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Hausmann’s primary concern regarding Venezuela’s economic recovery?
Hausmann’s primary concern is that the current focus on reopening the oil sector lacks a solid political and legal foundation, specifically the absence of credible elections, the restoration of rights, and control over armed groups.
What does Hausmann say about the recent reform of Venezuela’s hydrocarbon law?
Hausmann acknowledges the reform but questions its legitimacy, stating that it was approved by an illegitimate National Assembly and a compromised electoral council, diminishing its credibility with potential investors.
According to Hausmann, what is essential for attracting long-term investment in Venezuela?
According to Hausmann, investors prioritize civil liberties, institutional stability, and state security, alongside economic factors. He believes that without these elements, sustained investment is unlikely.
Given these challenges, what steps must be taken to foster genuine and sustainable progress in Venezuela?