The Strategy Behind the ‘Fortress Belt’: Analyzing the Push into Donbas
The current military trajectory in eastern Ukraine is increasingly focused on what is termed the “fortress belt” in the Donbas region. According to Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, the strategic objective is the capture of key stronghold cities, specifically Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostiantynivka.
Current reports indicate that Russian forces have closed the gap significantly, positioning themselves approximately 7 to 12 kilometers from Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk. The intensity of the conflict has already shifted into urban environments, with reports of active fighting occurring within certain zones of Kostiantynivka.
The Shift Toward ‘Security Zones’ in the North
Beyond the Donbas, military movements in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions suggest a broader strategic trend. The goal here is the creation of a “security zone,” a buffer area intended to protect Russian interests and potentially limit the scope of counter-offensives in the north and north-east.
This multi-front approach forces the defending forces to distribute their resources across a wider geography, stretching defenses from the southern regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson—where Russia controls an estimated 75% of the territory—up to the northern borders.
The War of Numbers: Discrepancies in Territorial Gains
One of the most striking trends in the current conflict is the widening gap between official military claims and independent mapping. This “information war” creates two vastly different narratives regarding the pace of the advance.
On one side, the Russian General Staff claims the capture of 80 settlements and over 1,700 square kilometers of territory since the beginning of the year, representing roughly 0.28% of Ukraine’s total landmass. On the other side, pro-Ukrainian maps suggest a much slower advance of approximately 600 square kilometers, or 0.1% of the territory.
This discrepancy highlights the difficulty of verifying gains in a high-intensity conflict. Whereas Russia claims to control 90% of the Donbas, the overall territorial control is estimated by pro-Ukrainian sources at 116,793 square kilometers, or about 19.35% of the country, including the annexed Crimea.
Attrition and the Failure of Counter-Offensives
The conflict has entered a phase of heavy attrition. Russian leadership reports that Ukrainian forces have attempted over 170 counterattacks between February and March in an effort to halt the Russian offensive.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, these attempts were unsuccessful and resulted in significant losses, including over 3,000 personnel and more than 160 pieces of equipment. This trend suggests a strategy of absorbing attacks to deplete the opponent’s assault troops.
the conflict is marked by mutual accusations of disinformation. While Gerasimov claims Ukrainian efforts to hide failures through false reports of recapturing 480 square kilometers, the opposing side maintains that the Russian advance has slowed considerably this year.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which cities are currently the primary targets in the Donbas?
The primary targets within the “fortress belt” are Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostiantynivka.
How much of the Donbas region does Russia currently control?
Russian estimates suggest they control approximately 90% of the Donbas region.
What is the purpose of the movements in Sumy and Kharkiv?
According to General Gerasimov, these advances are intended to create a “security zone” in the north and north-east.
What is the difference between Russian and pro-Ukrainian territorial claims this year?
Russia claims to have taken 1,700 square kilometers (0.28% of Ukraine), while pro-Ukrainian maps indicate approximately 600 square kilometers (0.1%).
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