Russia’s Nuclear Drills & the Sarmat Missile Test: The New Arms Race Heats Up After New START’s Collapse

Russia’s military is conducting a three-day nuclear exercise involving tens of thousands of troops and the launch of ballistic missiles, while Belarus participates in joint atomic drills—all against the backdrop of the collapsed New START treaty. The latest test of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), dubbed “Satan 2” for its devastating capabilities, signals a dramatic escalation in global nuclear tensions. With no major arms control agreements in place, experts warn of a new nuclear arms race—one that could redefine geopolitical power dynamics for decades to come.

Russia’s Largest Nuclear Drills in Years: What’s Being Tested?

From May 19 to 21, Russia’s armed forces are simulating atom weapon preparedness in response to perceived threats of aggression. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, over 64,000 soldiers and significant military hardware are involved, including:

• Ballistic missile launches from test sites across Russia.
• Cruise missile strikes simulating precision nuclear strikes.
• Command-and-control drills to ensure rapid deployment in a crisis.
• Integration with Belarusian forces, now under Russia’s nuclear umbrella since 2024.

These exercises follow Monday’s joint Russia-Belarus nuclear drills, where both nations emphasized that the maneuvers were not targeted at any specific country. However, analysts argue that the timing—coinciding with escalating tensions in Ukraine and the collapse of New START—sends a clear message: Russia is prioritizing nuclear deterrence in an era of shrinking arms control.

The Sarmat ICBM: Why “Satan 2” Is Redefining Global Nuclear Power

Last week, Russia conducted a test launch of the Sarmat missile, a move that has sent shockwaves through military and diplomatic circles. Nicknamed “Satan 2” due to its sheer destructive potential, the Sarmat is designed to:

• Penetrate any missile defense system, including the U.S. THAAD and Aegis networks.
• Deliver multiple warheads independently, increasing its lethality exponentially.
• Operate in space-like conditions, allowing it to maneuver unpredictably mid-flight.
• Serve as a counter to U.S. Hypersonic missiles, such as the AGM-183A.

Pro Tip: The Sarmat’s development reflects Russia’s strategy of asymmetric nuclear superiority. Unlike traditional ICBMs, which follow predictable flight paths, the Sarmat’s maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRVs) make it nearly impossible to intercept. This could force the U.S. And NATO to either accept higher risk or invest billions in unproven defense technologies.

New START Is Dead: How the World’s Last Major Nuclear Treaty Fell Apart

The 2010 New START treaty, the last remaining arms control agreement between the U.S. And Russia, expired in February 2026 without renewal. This treaty:

• Limited each side to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads.
• Required regular inspections and data exchanges to verify compliance.
• Provided a critical transparency mechanism in an otherwise opaque nuclear landscape.

With New START gone, the world now faces:

• No verified limits on nuclear arsenals—allowing both sides to expand stockpiles unchecked.
• Increased risk of miscalculation due to reduced communication between nuclear powers.
• A potential arms race in hypersonic and AI-guided nuclear weapons.

Case Study: The Ukraine war has already accelerated nuclear proliferation. Belarus, now hosting Russian tactical nukes, and China’s rapid modernization of its nuclear arsenal (now estimated at 400-500 warheads) suggest a multi-polar nuclear landscape is emerging—one where old treaties no longer apply.

Belarus Joins the Nuclear Club: How Russia’s Expansion Changes the Game

Since 2024, Belarus has become the first former Soviet republic to host Russian nuclear weapons under a “nuclear sharing” agreement. This shift has major implications:

• NATO’s eastern flank is now directly threatened—Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia are within striking distance of Belarusian-based tactical nukes.
• China’s silence on the issue suggests it may be normalizing Russia’s nuclear expansion in exchange for energy and trade concessions.
• Local opposition in Belarus is growing, with President Maia Sandu of Moldova warning that Russia may use Transnistria as a recruitment ground for nuclear-related operations.

Reader Question: *”If Belarus is now under Russia’s nuclear umbrella, could NATO respond with preemptive strikes?”*
Expert Answer: While NATO’s Article 5 guarantees collective defense, a nuclear response would trigger mutually assured destruction (MAD). Instead, expect cyberattacks, economic sanctions, and covert operations—not direct military strikes.

Five Trends That Will Shape the Next Decade of Nuclear Strategy

1. The Rise of Hypersonic Nuclear Weapons

   Both Russia and the U.S. Are racing to deploy hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs), which can evade defenses and strike at Mach 5+ speeds. The Sarmat is just the beginning.

   

2. AI and Autonomous Nuclear Systems

   Machines may soon decide when to launch nukes in a crisis. Russia’s AI-driven missile defense systems and the U.S. Prospect program are early indicators of this dangerous trend.

3. Tactical Nukes in the Gray Zone

   Russia’s use of low-yield nuclear weapons in Ukraine (if deployed) would set a precedent for limited nuclear warfare. This could lead to a new arms race in battlefield nukes.

4. The China Factor

   With 300+ new nuclear warheads in development, China’s arsenal is growing faster than any other nation’s. Its silver bullet program could soon outpace U.S. And Russian capabilities.

5. The Return of Arms Control Talks?

   With no new treaties in sight, diplomatic efforts are stalled. However, track-two diplomacy (backchannel negotiations) between scientists and military leaders could pave the way for limited confidence-building measures.

FAQ: Your Burning Questions About Russia’s Nuclear Moves Answered

1. Could Russia Actually Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?

Unlikely—but the threat is real. Russia has not used tactical nukes yet, but its escalate-to-deescalate strategy suggests it may threaten nuclear use to force NATO concessions. The risk increases if Ukraine makes major gains near Russian borders.

2. How Does the Sarmat Missile Compare to the U.S. Arsenal?

The Sarmat is more advanced than the U.S. Minuteman III in maneuverability but less accurate than the U.S. W76-2 warhead. However, its multiple warhead capability makes it a game-changer in a first-strike scenario.

3. Will NATO Respond to Russia’s Nuclear Expansion?

NATO will not match Russia’s nuclear buildup but will accelerate conventional deterrence, including:

• Deploying F-35 stealth jets in Eastern Europe.
• Expanding missile defense in Poland and Romania.
• Strengthening cyber and space deterrence.

4. Can China Stop This Arms Race?

Unlikely. China has no incentive to limit its own nuclear growth and may exploit U.S.-Russia tensions to expand its influence. However, trilateral talks (U.S.-Russia-China) could emerge if tensions spike.

5. What’s the Biggest Risk of This Nuclear Escalation?

The highest risk is miscalculation. With no communication channels (thanks to New START’s collapse), a single false alarm (like the 1995 Norwegian rocket scare) could trigger a catastrophic nuclear exchange.