Russia’s General Staff has prepared a plan to mobilize an additional 600,000 personnel throughout 2026 and 2027, according to an informational report published on the Ukrainian presidential office website by Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) and Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). The planned conscription aims to draw 300,000 recruits annually to reinforce combat units operating against Ukraine and to form new military formations.
Mobilization Targets and Growing Frontline Attrition
According to the Ukrainian intelligence report, the primary objective of the upcoming mobilization is to fully staff military units and formations currently engaged in the war, alongside newly forming Russian troops. Intelligence assessments indicate that Moscow is weighing this additional conscription drive due to mounting casualties on the front lines and a simultaneous slowdown in voluntary contract recruitment. Between January and July, Russian personnel losses reached approximately 240,000, with at least 140,000 classified as irreversible casualties. Over that same timeframe, the Russian military enlisted 232,000 new contract soldiers, falling short of replacing losses at the previous pace.
Legal Changes and Expanded Conscription Criteria
To facilitate the new mobilization waves, the Russian leadership is actively revising national legislation to tighten military registration and broaden the scope of the draft. According to intelligence findings, individuals previously convicted of specific crimes—including weapons, explosives, radioactive substances, and drug smuggling, as well as banditry, participation in criminal groups, and the organization of illegal migration—will now be eligible for service. Furthermore, Russian authorities have approved the deployment of certain categories of convicted women into military service through mobilization or contract enlistment. Training periods for the newly mobilized personnel are projected to last between 15 and 60 days, with portions of the training slated for military training grounds in Belarus.
Domestic Discontent and Coercive Enforcement Measures
Internal Russian documents cited by Ukrainian intelligence point to growing regional discontent over the war—with local opposition reaching up to 69% in certain areas—as a key driver behind the reliance on forced mobilization rather than voluntary enlistment. To enforce compliance, Russia has already implemented electronic mobilization notices. Authorities are also preparing harsher restrictions for draft-evaders, which include travel bans, prohibitions on securing loans and executing real estate transactions, the revocation of driver’s licenses, and the freezing of bank accounts. Ukrainian intelligence assesses that Vladimir Putin will likely formalize the additional mobilization push following the State Duma elections scheduled for the second half of September.
Did you know? Ukrainian intelligence reports indicate that part of the newly mobilized Russian personnel may undergo training at military ranges located in neighboring Belarus.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many people does Russia plan to mobilize in 2026 and 2027?
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia has prepared plans to mobilize 600,000 people total across those two years, broken down into 300,000 recruits annually.
What measures is Russia taking against draft evaders?
Russia has introduced electronic draft notices and is preparing further restrictions, including exit bans from the country, frozen bank accounts, revoked driver’s licenses, and blocks on loans and real estate deals.
Who is now eligible for military service under the updated rules?
The revised criteria allow the recruitment of individuals convicted of crimes such as drug, weapons, and explosives smuggling, banditry, and certain categories of convicted women.
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