Russia’s War in Ukraine: A Prolonged Conflict and Growing European Security Concerns
Despite economic pressures and significant casualties, Russia is expected to sustain its military operations in Ukraine throughout 2026, according to a recent assessment by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). This projection raises serious concerns about the long-term stability of the region and the evolving security landscape for Europe.
The Kremlin’s Financial Commitment to War
Moscow has demonstrated a substantial financial commitment to the conflict, allocating at least $186 billion (£138bn) to defense in 2025 – a 3% real-terms increase. This represents 7.3% of Russia’s GDP, exceeding the proportional spending of both the US and the UK. Defense spending has doubled in real terms since 2021, fueling continued military equipment production and recruitment efforts.
Manpower Challenges and Potential Mobilization
While Russia continues to commit significant resources, there are emerging signs of strain. Experts note a potential decline in the rate of recruitment, with reports suggesting that the quality of new recruits is decreasing. To maintain current offensive capabilities, the Kremlin may face a difficult decision: risk a second large-scale mobilization, potentially triggering social unrest similar to that seen in September 2022.
Evolving Tactics and Modernization of Military Capabilities
Russia is not only sustaining its current efforts but also adapting its military tactics and modernizing its arsenal. This includes the development of advanced weaponry, such as a modernized version of the Shahed-136 drone, capable of reaching targets up to 2,000km away across Europe. This development underscores the need for enhanced missile defense and anti-drone systems within NATO.
The Growing Threat to European Security
The increased range and sophistication of Russian weaponry pose a direct threat to European security. Incidents like the incursion of 21 Russian drones into Polish airspace in September, disrupting air travel and prompting shelter-in-place orders, highlight the vulnerability of European nations. NATO allies and Canada have pledged to increase defense budgets to 3.5% by 2035, but achieving this goal will require sustained investment and potential trade-offs.
Dependence on the US and the Need for European Self-Reliance
Despite increased commitments, Europe remains heavily reliant on the United States for critical military assets, including intelligence, cloud computing, and space-based capabilities. Reducing this dependence is a long-term process, expected to extend well into the 2030s. Improving air defense capabilities is a key priority in this effort.
Casualty Figures and the Human Cost of the War
The conflict has already resulted in a staggering loss of life. Russia has sustained over 1.2 million casualties, both killed and wounded. Recent estimates from the UK Ministry of Defence indicate approximately 35,030 casualties in December and 31,713 in January, although other sources cite figures closer to 40,000 per month.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: How long is Russia expected to be able to continue the war in Ukraine?
A: According to the IISS, Russia is expected to be able to sustain its invasion throughout 2026.
Q: Is Russia increasing or decreasing its military spending?
A: Russia increased its military spending by 3% in real terms in 2025, and it has doubled since 2021.
Q: What is the biggest challenge facing Russia in continuing the war?
A: Maintaining troop numbers is a growing challenge, potentially requiring another mobilization with associated risks of social unrest.
Q: What is NATO doing to address the increased threat from Russia?
A: NATO allies are increasing defense budgets and focusing on improving missile defense and anti-drone systems.
Did you know? Russia’s defense spending now accounts for over 7% of its GDP, a significantly higher proportion than that of the US or the UK.
Pro Tip: Staying informed about developments in the Russia-Ukraine war is crucial for understanding the evolving geopolitical landscape. Regularly consult reputable news sources and analysis from think tanks like the IISS.
Explore more articles on European security and international affairs on our website. Subscribe to our newsletter for regular updates and in-depth analysis.
