Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have caused the country’s total processing capacity to drop by approximately 30% since late October.
According to reports from LSM.lv and TVNET, the decline follows a series of attacks that have disrupted operations across the nation’s energy infrastructure.
The recent offensive has impacted nine of Russia’s 35 largest oil refineries. Data indicates that the facilities affected since late October—most notably three major plants located in the central part of the country—possess a combined nominal capacity of approximately 300,000 tons, or 2.2 million barrels per day.
While Russia’s total primary oil processing capacity is estimated at 930,000 tons daily, actual output was already limited, with refineries processing about 700,000 tons of crude oil per day at the end of October. Industry sources estimate that the resulting reduction in actual crude oil processing volume may reach as high as 200,000 tons per day.
The drone strikes, which Ukrainian leadership describes as tālas darbības sankcijas
(long-range sanctions), are intended to impose economic costs and create fuel shortages within Russia. The cumulative effect of these attacks has led to significant operational consequences, including:
- Widespread fires and the forced suspension of refinery activities.
- Emerging fuel deficits in various regions, with reports of long queues at filling stations in Moscow.
- Disruptions to Russian military logistics, with specific impacts noted on the supply lines to Crimea.
Since starting this strategy in August 2025, Ukrainian forces have targeted pump stations, storage facilities, and export terminals to pressure the Russian state regarding its invasion of Ukraine.
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