Sberbank Chief Warns of Ruble Weakness in 2026
Russia’s leading bank, Sberbank, is forecasting a significant weakening of the ruble in 2026. Sberbank CEO German Gref attributes this anticipated decline to shrinking current account surpluses and reduced foreign exchange interventions by the Central Bank.
Ruble’s Recent Strength and Looming Challenges
The ruble experienced an unusual surge in 2025, strengthening nearly 45% against the US dollar – making it the best-performing currency of the year. This strength was largely supported by a substantial current account surplus of $41 billion. However, Sberbank anticipates this surplus will shrink considerably to around $10 billion in 2026.
Gref stated he doesn’t foresee the ruble maintaining its strength from the previous year, calling it “counterproductive in every conceivable and inconceivable way.”
Central Bank Policy and its Impact
A key factor influencing the ruble’s trajectory is the Central Bank’s foreign exchange interventions. Currently, the bank is selling substantial amounts of Chinese yuan and gold on the Moscow Exchange – approximately 16.5 billion rubles daily – significantly more than usual. This intervention has been instrumental in bolstering the ruble.
However, a reduction in these interventions, coupled with the declining current account surplus, is expected to place downward pressure on the currency. The Russian government is similarly considering tightening its budget rule with a lower base price for oil, which could further limit the Central Bank’s ability to supply foreign currency.
Conflicting Forecasts and Personal Assessments
Sberbank’s official forecast for the finish of 2026 is 85-90 rubles per dollar. However, Gref himself holds a more pessimistic outlook. He anticipates a rate of around 95 rubles per dollar, potentially reaching 100 depending on Central Bank policies. He believes the ruble will begin to weaken from the second quarter of 2026 as intervention efforts are scaled back.
Gref explained that the speed of the decline is difficult to predict, stating, “much depends on gut feeling.”
Broader Economic Context
In November 2025, during a meeting with President Vladimir Putin, Gref also noted that Sberbank’s growth was modest due to challenging macroeconomic conditions. While the bank achieved a record dividend payment of 787 billion rubles, some portfolios, particularly consumer loans, were contracting.
Sberbank expects its 2025 profit to grow by around 6%, but acknowledges that performance is slightly below initial expectations.
FAQ
Q: What is driving the expected weakening of the ruble?
A: A shrinking current account surplus and anticipated reductions in foreign exchange interventions by the Central Bank are the primary drivers.
Q: What was the ruble’s performance in 2025?
A: The ruble strengthened nearly 45% against the US dollar in 2025, becoming the best-performing currency of the year.
Q: What is Sberbank’s official forecast for the ruble?
A: Sberbank’s official forecast is 85-90 rubles per dollar by the end of 2026.
Q: Is the Central Bank’s intervention a temporary measure?
A: The article suggests that the current level of intervention is unusually high and may not be sustainable.
Did you know? Sberbank paid out a record 787 billion rubles in dividends in August 2025, the highest amount ever in the Russian market.
Pro Tip: Keep a close watch on the Central Bank’s policy announcements and macroeconomic indicators for further insights into the ruble’s future performance.
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