Ukraine‘s Energy Crisis Deepens: Russia‘s Attacks Disrupt Power Transmission and Generation
The situation with electricity supply has significantly deteriorated in Ukraine’s eastern and central regions, with the city of Dnipro and the Kharkiv region being the most affected. Russia launched a series of attacks on December 28, 13, and 25, targeting both electricity generation facilities and transmission systems. The first two attacks primarily hit transmission, leading to distinctive power outage graphics, particularly in western regions where disruptions were minimal or non-existent, while the rest of the country experienced simultaneous second-wave outages.
Due to damaged networks, power production had to be reduced at nuclear power plants. The December 25 attack focused on generation facilities, causing significant damage in seven regions, including several thermal power plants, thermal power stations, and Dnieper hydropower plants. Nuclear power generation was increased to compensate for the losses.
After the December 25 attack, the power grid lost a substantial portion of its generation capacity. While theoretically, imports could have compensated for this loss, practical constraints—such as previously damaged transmission infrastructure still awaiting repairs—made imports ineffective. Consequently, power outages for consumers remained non-uniform.
Repair works have been swift, with a significant reduction in power outages on December 26 and 27. However, the situation remains challenging, necessitating power restrictions even on December 28, a weekend day.
Ukraine’s Minister of Energy, German Galushchenko, reported that Russia has changed its attack tactics this year, increasingly relying on rocket strikes equipped with cluster munitions, which cause more destruction and require longer recovery times, including demining efforts.
Despite the complexity of the situation, a complete blackout remains unlikely, according to Alexander Kharchenko, director of the Center for Energy Research. However, he expects more challenging conditions in eastern regions due to significant damage to local generation facilities and insufficient power supply.
Kharchenko also raised concerns about attacks on heat supply systems, particularly in Dnipro and Kharkiv, where thermal power plants were targeted. He argued that these attacks posed a more significant threat to the population than mere power outages.
