"Russia’s Intelligence Services Push for Escalation of Hostilities in Ukraine"

Rise in Russian Casualties Doesn’t Deter Escalation in Ukraine

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russian security forces believe the conflict in Ukraine should intensify, rather than seek diplomatic solutions. Despite acknowledging significant losses in personnel and equipment, Russia’s military leadership is unwilling to engage in meaningful peace talks.

Acknowledging its struggles, Russia’s leadership admits that its gains on the battlefield have notOFFSET proportionate to its losses. Nevertheless, it continues to accept substantial casualties in exchange for limited tactical advancements, not meaningful operational gains.

In December, following three months of territorial gains and heavy losses in September, October, and November, Russia’s average daily advance slowed to approximately nine square kilometers. However, Russian military commanders may not be as amenable as President Vladimir Putin to sustaining such high casualty rates if the advance pace persists.

Counterintuitively, Russia’s security and military officials are not inclined to cease hostilities due to these losses. Instead, they advise Putin to escalate military efforts. This includes discussion of partially mobilizing reservists, presumably to reinforce combat zones with fresh troops and equipment.