Sanna Marin: Russia Must Not Win War in Ukraine

The End of Geographic Safety: Why Distance No Longer Protects Europe

For decades, security strategy in Europe was largely defined by geography. The traditional view, as noted by Nupi researcher Jakub M. Godzimirski, was that countries like Spain felt secure because Russian forces would have to cross multiple borders—or take a long sea route to Bilbao or Cádiz—to reach them.

However, this paradigm is shifting. Former Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin warns that the era of being “safe” due to distance is over. The emergence of new technologies is rewriting the rules of engagement and deterrence.

The AI and Drone Threat Landscape

The danger is no longer just about boots on the ground. Marin emphasizes that modern threats can be deployed anywhere. Drones can be planted in any location, and artificial intelligence is now capable of mapping critical infrastructure with a speed that is “almost impossible to fathom.”

This means that countries in Southern Europe—including Spain, Portugal, and France—cannot rely on the Pyrenees or the Mediterranean as natural shields. The ability to target infrastructure remotely makes every NATO member a potential target, regardless of their proximity to the Russian border.

The NATO Spending Gap and Political Pressure

The discrepancy in defense spending is becoming a central point of tension within the alliance. Even as some nations have historically prioritized other sectors, the geopolitical climate is forcing a reassessment.

The pressure is not only coming from within Europe but also from the United States. President Donald Trump has set a rigorous demand for NATO countries to increase their defense spending to at least 5 percent of their GDP.

For countries like Spain, which currently spends significantly less than the NATO average, this represents a massive shift in fiscal priority. The challenge lies in balancing national budgets with the urgent need for increased deterrence against an adversary that Marin explicitly defines as “an enemy.”

The Global Signal: The Stakes of the Ukraine Conflict

The war in Ukraine is viewed by many leaders not just as a regional struggle, but as a litmus test for global authoritarianism. Sanna Marin argues that the outcome of this conflict will send a powerful signal to other regimes worldwide.

If Russia is not defeated, it may signal to other authoritarian leaders that aggression pays off and that territorial gains can be achieved despite global condemnation. Marin asserts that Europe must ensure Ukraine emerges victorious to demonstrate that breaking international law and attacking European nations leads to failure, not reward.

This perspective highlights a broader trend: the shift from localized conflict management to a global defense of shared values and the rule of law.

The Role of Strategic Alliances

The evolution of Finland’s own security posture serves as a case study. The Finnish Prime Minister has previously stated that NATO membership for Ukraine would have prevented the war, underscoring the importance of formal security guarantees over vague promises of support.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Sanna Marin urging Southern European countries to increase defense?
She argues that new technologies, specifically drones and AI, allow for the rapid mapping and targeting of critical infrastructure, meaning geographic distance from Russia no longer provides safety.

What is the current state of Spain’s defense spending?
Spain is estimated to have spent 1.28 percent of its GDP on defense in 2024, which is lower than any other NATO member.

What happens if Russia wins the war in Ukraine, according to Marin?
A Russian victory would signal to other authoritarian regimes that such aggression is profitable and that they can win despite international scrutiny.