A growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is now public. Tensions rose last year as the two Gulf monarchies clashed over Yemen, but the underlying animosity became clear in January when Saudi media accused the UAE of “investing in chaos” across North Africa and the Horn of Africa and acting as a proxy for Israel. The UAE has not issued similar public statements, but this discord represents a deeper issue.
A Broader Contest
Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are engaged in a strategic competition over economic, political, and security matters. This rivalry stems from Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, a plan to diversify the kingdom’s economy away from oil and become a hub for finance, business, and travel. Achieving this vision requires challenging the UAE’s existing dominance in these sectors, a position the UAE itself secured decades ago by surpassing Bahrain as a commercial center.
While a direct war or blockade is unlikely, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are engaged in economic competition at home and through proxy conflicts abroad. This rivalry will likely shape the region for the next decade, influencing security engagements with Western powers, investment strategies, and approaches to ongoing regional conflicts.
From Alignment to Discord
In 2015, when Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) became deputy crown prince, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were closely aligned, particularly in response to regional challenges. Both countries supported each other’s military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen and championed the U.S.’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. They also jointly embargoed Qatar in 2017, seeking to pressure Doha over its relationship with Iran and support for the Muslim Brotherhood.
Though, this shared agenda began to fray within a few years. The Qatar blockade was eventually abandoned, despite Doha’s continued support for the Muslim Brotherhood and ties to Iran. The U.S.’s maximum pressure campaign also failed to achieve its goals.
Starting around 2021, Saudi Arabia began to diverge from the UAE, warming relations with Iran, Qatar, and Turkey. By 2023, a formal rapprochement with Tehran was agreed upon. Some Saudi officials have even suggested the UAE encouraged Saudi Arabia to participate in the earlier blockade of Qatar.
Points of Contention
Today, Saudi Arabia and the UAE disagree on issues related to Israel, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen. Saudi Arabia generally prioritizes stability, while the UAE focuses on preventing the spread of political Islam. In Sudan, Riyadh supports the Sudanese Armed Forces, while the UAE has reportedly provided support to the rival Rapid Support Forces. In Syria, Saudi Arabia has pledged billions in reconstruction aid, viewing the current leader as a path to stability, while the UAE remains skeptical. Regarding Israel, the UAE has quietly increased commercial and security ties, while Saudi Arabia insists on a pathway to a Palestinian state before normalizing relations.
These tensions culminated in late 2025 in Yemen, where factions backed by Riyadh and Abu Dhabi clashed. A Yemeni separatist group supported by Abu Dhabi seized territory held by Saudi-backed groups, prompting a retaliatory bombing of an Emirati arms shipment by Saudi Arabia, leading to the UAE’s withdrawal from the country.
Competing for Dominance
Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE aim to reassure foreign investors that the Gulf region remains safe. However, tensions are likely to worsen as the two countries compete for investment in key sectors. Saudi Arabia’s success with Vision 2030 may come at the expense of the UAE’s dominance in finance, technology, tourism, and logistics.
Saudi Arabia is leveraging its larger market and resources to challenge the UAE’s economic position, implementing nontariff barriers and awarding government contracts to companies with regional headquarters within the kingdom. Saudi Arabia also has greater industry and manufacturing capacity and is investing in domestic mining. By land mass, Saudi Arabia is 27 times bigger than the UAE.
The UAE, however, has an established edge in financial services, aviation, healthcare, and tourism, and benefits from a more diversified economy and looser social restrictions. In 2023, the UAE handled double the number of shipping containers and received twice the amount of foreign direct investment as Saudi Arabia.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Vision 2030?
Vision 2030 is Saudi Arabia’s plan to diversify its economy away from oil and become a hub for finance, business, and travel.
What role did Qatar play in the tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE?
In 2017, Saudi Arabia and the UAE jointly embargoed Qatar, but later abandoned the blockade despite Qatar’s continued support for the Muslim Brotherhood and its relationship with Iran.
What is the current state of the conflict in Yemen?
Factions backed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE clashed in Yemen in December, leading to the UAE’s withdrawal from the country.
How will this evolving rivalry reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East in the years to come?
