The Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) has issued a red alert for the second half of 2026, warning of a high risk of severe transboundary haze across the region. This forecast, driven by the return of the El Nino climate phenomenon and increased deforestation for biofuel crops, marks the second time the think-tank has issued such a warning since 2019. The combination of hotter, drier weather and economic pressures on land management could strain fire-prevention efforts throughout the coming months.
Did You Know? The last time the Singapore Institute of International Affairs issued a red alert for haze was in 2023, which also coincided with an El Nino year that saw Singapore experience hazy conditions over an October weekend.
Why the 2026 dry season carries higher risks
Meteorologists expect the region to face a longer and stronger dry season this year due to the warming of the sea surface over the eastern Pacific, known as El Nino. According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre, these conditions are already present and are expected to intensify between August and September. Further complicating the outlook, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is projected to develop in July or August, according to the National Environment Agency and the Singapore weatherman. Historically, the convergence of a super El Nino and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole has preceded severe haze events, such as the 1997 and 2015 crises.
How economic pressures influence fire risks
While weather patterns create the conditions for fire, the SIIA report identifies agricultural management as a primary driver of the haze risk. Farm operation costs have risen by 20 to 30 per cent, and higher diesel prices may incentivize some producers to use fire for land clearing rather than machinery. The push for biofuel—specifically Indonesia’s July 1 mandate for a 50 per cent biodiesel blend—further increases the demand for land. This economic environment may pressure small and medium-sized enterprises to adopt unsustainable practices, according to SIIA chairman Simon Tay.
Expert Insight: The challenge of governance and resources
The 2026 dry season represents a significant stress test for the administration of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto. While the government has reactivated an inter-agency desk to manage fire responses, the effectiveness of these measures may be hampered by exhausted budgets in fire-prone regions like Riau and Kalimantan. As an editor, I note the critical distinction between large-scale corporate operations, which generally maintain fire-free protocols, and the independent smallholder lands that lack the capital for alternative clearing methods. The success of regional haze prevention likely hinges on the balance between tighter central governance and the practical realities faced by small-scale farmers on the ground.
What happens next?
The severity of the haze in Singapore will depend on several factors, including wind direction and the success of firefighting initiatives. If dry conditions persist through October, as projected, the risk of peatland fires—which can smoulder underground for weeks—could increase. Analysts expect that while larger corporations have the resources to maintain fire-free operations, the region’s ability to prevent a widespread crisis may depend on the efficacy of voluntary firefighting communities and the enforcement of land-use oversight by regional authorities.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is biofuel demand linked to the risk of haze?
According to the SIIA report, the rising demand for biofuel crops encourages the expansion of plantations. This creates an increased risk that producers may resort to slash-and-burn methods to clear land, as these methods are cheaper than using machinery during a period of high operational costs.
How do peatland fires complicate firefighting efforts?
Peatland fires are particularly difficult to extinguish because they can smoulder underground for weeks, making them much harder to control than surface vegetation fires, according to the report.
What role does the Indonesian government play in fire prevention this year?
In 2025, President Prabowo Subianto launched an inter-agency desk to strengthen fire responses, which was reactivated in mid-June 2026. Additionally, the government has activated voluntary firefighting communities to prepare for the severe dry season forecasts.
Do you believe current economic incentives are sufficient to discourage the use of fire in agricultural land clearing?
