Approximately 84 villages in South Lebanon have become impossible for residents to return to, highlighting a stark contrast between ground realities and claims of victory made by Sheikh Naim Qassem. As Lebanon and Israel prepare for a third round of negotiations in Washington, Israel has launched waves of violent raids across the south and into the Bekaa region.
Military analysts suggest these actions mirror a “Gaza scenario” that Israel had previously threatened. According to retired Brigadier General Yaarab Sakhr, the strategy to render parts of Lebanon uninhabitable has seen significant success, particularly south of the Litani River.
The Strategy of Displacement
General Sakhr notes that during a previous conflict, approximately 24 villages were made uninhabitable, stretching 100 kilometers from Naqoura to Kfarshouba and Shebaa, with a depth of one to two kilometers.
In the current conflict, the Israeli army has deepened its penetration, occupying 18 points compared to five previously. The military operation evolved from the “Blue Line” at the border to a “Red Line” at a depth of 5 to 6 kilometers to prevent direct shelling, and eventually to a “Yellow Line” at a depth of 7 to 10 kilometers.
Half of the region from the Yellow Line to Northern Israel is now described as burnt, bulldozed, and mined. This area has been rendered uninhabitable, leading to the mass displacement of its population.
Territorial Control and Military Objectives
More than 70 villages in South Lebanon have been lost by their residents. General Sakhr explains that Israel has divided the area similarly to its approach in Gaza, using a “Yellow Line” to partition territory.
Under this scenario, approximately 70 villages are being mined and blown up, while other areas are controlled indirectly through fire to target Hezbollah leaders, and members. This strategy effectively prevents all residents from returning.
By directly occupying about 60 percent of the area south of the Litani and controlling the remainder through fire, Israel has largely achieved its primary strategic goal of securing Northern Israel.
Expansion and Geopolitical Pressure
Recent developments indicate a shift toward the area north of the Litani. Evacuation orders have been observed over the past week in the eastern sector and areas extending above it, including Nabatieh and Kfar Tebnit, due to their proximity to the Finger of Galilee.
General Sakhr suggests that without U.S. Restrictions on targeting other Lebanese regions, Israeli operations could have expanded further by land, sea, and air.
Despite a ceasefire agreement, daily strikes continue in South Lebanon and the Bekaa. Sources indicate these attacks are intended to pressure Lebanon during the Washington negotiations, creating a situation of “negotiating under fire.”
Future Risks and Escalation
Security sources express concern that the failure of U.S.-Iran negotiations, driven by difficult conditions set by Tehran, could lead to a return to full-scale war in Lebanon.
There are fears that Israel may implement plans to occupy parts of the Bekaa, specifically the North Bekaa region. This area is believed to be a primary hub for Hezbollah’s long-range missiles, which are a major Israeli target.
Analysts suggest that the fate of Lebanon may be tied to the outcome of negotiations with Iran. There is concern that U.S. President Donald Trump may not be able to restrain Israeli desires to expand operations into the Bekaa or toward Beirut to eliminate Hezbollah.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the “Dahiya Doctrine” mentioned in the report?
It is a military strategy involving the evacuation of populations, followed by mining, detonating, and using bulldozers to remove landmarks, rendering the area uninhabitable.
How has the Israeli military’s presence in South Lebanon changed?
The army has increased its occupied points from five to 18 and established a series of defensive lines (Blue, Red, and Yellow) to create a buffer zone between 7 and 10 kilometers deep.
Why is the North Bekaa region strategically significant?
It is considered a primary storage site for Hezbollah’s long-range missiles, making it a primary target for potential Israeli expansion.
Do you believe diplomatic pressure in Washington can reverse the physical destruction occurring on the ground in South Lebanon?
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