SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, just 15 days after its June 12 market debut. The inclusion is expected to trigger billions in passive buying from index funds, while major Wall Street brokerages issued bullish ratings as the industry-mandated quiet period ended.
How the Nasdaq 100 Inclusion Triggers Passive Buying
The addition of SpaceX to the Nasdaq 100 creates immediate demand for shares. Because index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) must mirror the benchmark’s composition, they are required to purchase SpaceX stock to maintain their tracking. According to Business Times, this process is expected to unleash billions in passive buying.
The speed of this entry is rare. SpaceX entered the index only 15 days after its initial public offering, a move facilitated by revised Nasdaq rules for newly listed companies. This fast-track inclusion places the company alongside other tech giants in a benchmark where over US$587 billion is currently invested in tracking funds, including Invesco’s QQQ and QQQM.
The scale of the potential inflow is significant. JPMorgan estimated last month that the index entry could draw US$4.3 billion in passive inflows to the company.
Wall Street Ratings: “AI’s Final Frontier”
The end of the industry-mandated quiet period allowed the banks that underwrote the IPO—including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, Citigroup, and JPMorgan—to begin formal coverage. The initial reception is broadly bullish.
Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on Tuesday with a top rating, describing the company as
“AI’s final frontier.”
Goldman Sachs also issued a top rating. Analysts at the firm noted that the company is
“well-positioned to scale its differentiated advantages across space, connectivity, and AI,”
suggesting that each of these three markets could evolve into multi-trillion-dollar opportunities over the next five-plus years.
Other firms, including RBC, Bernstein, and Stifel, also launched coverage with top ratings. These analysts are specifically betting on the success of Starship, the next-generation, fully reusable rocket. RBC analysts characterized the vehicle as the
flywheel that powers SpaceX’s ambitions.
Financial Performance and the IPO Aftermath
Despite the market enthusiasm, SpaceX’s financial profile remains a mix of massive revenue and significant losses. According to Yahoo Finance, the company’s business units in space, connectivity, and AI generated $18 billion in revenue last year. However, heavy capital spending resulted in a reported loss of $4.9 billion.
The IPO itself was a record-breaking event. The company initially raised $75 billion, but that total climbed to more than $85 billion after an overallotment option was exercised. SpaceX also took the unusual step of earmarking more than 20% of shares for retail investors, compared to the typical 5% to 10% seen in most IPOs.
For those who entered at the June 12 offering price of $135, the short-term gains have been modest. As of early trading on July 2, the stock reached approximately $160, an 18% increase.
| Investment Scenario (IPO Price) | Value as of July 2, 2026 |
|---|---|
| $10,000 investment at $135/share | $11,800 |
Divergent Valuations and Future Risks
While the market capitalization of SpaceX has reached US$2.1 trillion—making it the sixth-largest US company and CEO Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire—not all analysts agree with this valuation.
Morningstar analysts have provided a starkly different perspective, pegging the company’s valuation at approximately US$780 billion. This lower estimate stems from uncertainty surrounding the AI business, specifically regarding xAI and the social media platform X.
The company’s future growth depends on several high-stakes technical and commercial goals:
- AI Infrastructure: Investors are betting SpaceX will become a hyperscale AI infrastructure provider to fund the development of Grok and compete with OpenAI’s GPT and Anthropic’s Claude.
- Starlink Expansion: There is significant expected room for Starlink to increase its dominance in satellite communications.
- Starship Deployment: Much of the long-term ambition, including the colonization of Mars, relies on the successful development of the Starship rocket.
While FTSE Russell added the stock to its US indices last month, The Edge Markets reports that S&P Global declined to create a similar fast-track process for the S&P 500 in June, meaning it may take at least a year before SpaceX enters that specific benchmark.
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