Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stalled as renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran disrupt one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, no large vessel has crossed the strait via the U.S.-coordinated route while broadcasting its location since Tuesday, and transit levels have plummeted from a daily average of 130 ships to just five recorded on Wednesday.
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Grinds to a Halt
The maritime corridor, essential for global energy transport, is experiencing a sharp decline in activity. Data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence indicates that no vessels above 10,000 deadweight tonnage (dwt) have used the “Southern Highway” with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) active since July 7. While maritime intelligence platform Windward noted only five transits on Wednesday, the volume represents a significant departure from pre-war norms.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) stated in a Thursday assessment that shipping lines are adopting a “cautious posture” due to an “elevated threat environment.” John Bradford, executive director of the Yokosuka Council on Asia Pacific Studies, warned that the risk extends beyond the immediate strait. “Iran has the ability to strike ships across the Persian Gulf, through the Strait of Hormuz, and out into the Gulf of Oman,” Bradford said, noting that regional shipping remains highly exposed.
Energy Market Volatility and Price Pressures
Despite the supply chain disruption, Brent crude prices remained relatively steady at $76.58 per barrel as of Friday morning. While the market has shown a degree of resilience, analysts suggest that underlying pressure is mounting. Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, projects that Brent could rise by $10 to $15 per barrel into the summer months as global oil inventories dwindle.
The impact is uneven across energy sectors. June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, identified refined petroleum products as the primary point of concern. “Diesel, in particular, is grappling both from the loss of supply from the Middle East refineries, and from Russian refineries facing relentless attacks by Ukrainian drones,” Goh stated. These combined factors are driving diesel prices above seasonal norms.
Regional Conflict and Security Risks
The shipping freeze follows a period of military escalation. On Thursday, Iran reported multiple explosions in the southern part of the country. This followed U.S. strikes on Iranian targets earlier in the week. While Washington launched its initial strikes in response to attacks on vessels in the strait, a U.S. official confirmed to Al Jazeera that U.S. forces were not involved in the latest reported explosions.
Retaliatory rhetoric remains high. Iranian officials have claimed that Tehran’s forces struck U.S. military assets and sites across Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Iraq. The ongoing “start-stop” nature of the crisis poses a long-term threat to maritime logistics. “The great risk is that as the crisis prolongs, shipping may begin to make more sustained decisions to prioritise other ports and routes,” Bradford noted.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why has shipping in the Strait of Hormuz declined?
Shipping has dropped sharply due to an “elevated threat environment” caused by renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. Major shipping lines are adopting cautious postures to avoid potential strikes in the region.
Are vessels still moving through the strait?
Traffic has significantly decreased. While some vessels are believed to be crossing “dark” (without broadcasting their location via AIS), tracked transits have fallen from roughly 130 per day to just five on Wednesday, according to Windward.
How are oil prices reacting to the crisis?
Brent crude prices have largely held steady, reflecting market confidence that the situation may stabilize. However, analysts at TD Securities expect upward pressure on prices as global oil inventories decrease leading into the summer.
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