Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson are deadlocked at 49 percent among likely voters in Maine’s tightening U.S. Senate race, as affordability concerns and President Donald Trump’s policies shape the final days before the November 3, 2026, election.
Polls Tie Candidates As Prediction Markets Favor Jackson
With voters heading to the polls on November 3, 2026, the contest between five-term incumbent Susan Collins and former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson remains a statistical dead heat.
We can't eat road salt. pic.twitter.com/uCFRyFPApV
A Fox News Poll surveyed 1,514 likely voters and found the candidates tied at 49 percent, erasing a previous four-point advantage for the Democrat recorded earlier in October by Marist Poll.A subsequent CNN poll conducted by SSRS placed Jackson at 49 percent and Collins at 45 percent among likely voters, with 4 percent listing neither candidate and 2 percent choosing other options.
Kalshi traders give Collins a 36 percent chance of securing a sixth term, while pricing Troy Jackson’s chances of unseating her at 64 percent. Nationally, the race stands as one of the most expensive per capita contests in the country, with political groups and undisclosed donors pumping more than $200 million into ads, mailers, and voter outreach.
Energy Costs And Tariff Exemptions Drive Campaign Debates
Economic pressures dominate voter concerns across Maine, where soaring expenses have pushed everyday necessities out of reach for many households. The United States war with Iran in late February sent global oil prices climbing, forcing independent fishermen like 27-year-old Christian LaMontagne to slow down their lobster boats to conserve fuel. Before the conflict, filling a tank in Casco Bay cost about $350 a week; that expense has nearly doubled to almost $700. In rural logging communities like Jackman, residents face similar hardships as diesel costs surge under the weight of trade disputes.
Jackson has repeatedly tied those economic hardships directly to Washington, arguing that Collins refuses to check the administration. During their first debate in early October, Jackson quipped, We can’t eat road salt,
criticizing Collins for highlighting a rock salt exemption she secured from President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada.
Collins countered by pointing to targeted tariff relief she obtained for nine agricultural product categories used by producers of blueberries, apples, potatoes, and seaweed.I have asked for tariff relief for these important products,
Collins said, noting that producers relied on specialized goods unavailable from domestic suppliers.
With production costs rising sharply and growers and processors facing significant economic pressures, these exemptions provide meaningful relief for Maine’s iconic wild blueberry industry. We are deeply thankful for and sincerely appreciate Senator Collins’ engagement, responsiveness, and efforts to address the challenges facing our industry.
Wild Blueberry Commission and Maine Aquaculture Association, via Newsweek
Voters Weigh Seniority Against Trump Ties
A New York Times analysis found that Collins has broken with her party 17 percent of the time during the current Congress, but those defections have rarely slowed the president’s legislative agenda.
Collins opposed the final passage of Trump’s signature domestic policy package—which imposed steep Medicaid cuts—after supporting a key procedural vote that allowed the bill to reach the Senate floor.Yet, the CNN poll revealed potential warning signs for the incumbent: 54 percent of respondents believe Collins would do more to support the interests of Donald Trump and the Republican Party if reelected, compared to 46 percent who believe she would prioritize Maine residents.
Supporters argue that Collins maintains a constant community presence that transcends national partisan divides. She is great on constituent services and goes out of her way to be in the community,
remarked local voices cited by Fox News, while dismissing suggestions that she avoids public forums.
Jackson has campaigned as a populist alternative rooted in his working-class upbringing in Allagash, framing his opponent as an entrenched Washington fixture. I give a shit about people’s families,
Jackson told supporters at a recent campaign stop. If you think that you want to vote for somebody that backs the billionaires, well, God bless you. That isn’t me.
Can Collins rely on her three decades of seniority to preserve her seat, or will voter anger at Donald Trump push Troy Jackson to victory?