Tactical voting is emerging as a critical factor in the Makerfield byelection, with significant numbers of Green and Liberal Democrat supporters signaling they will back Labour’s Andy Burnham to prevent a Reform UK victory. According to polling by Opinium, more than half of those who would typically vote Green or Lib Dem are planning to switch their support to Burnham to avoid a split vote, while voters on the right appear less willing to consolidate behind Reform’s candidate, Robert Kenyon.
How tactical voting is shaping the race
The strategic shift among left-leaning voters contrasts sharply with the behavior of voters on the right. While Green and Liberal Democrat supporters are actively lending their votes to Burnham, research from Opinium indicates that only about a third of those who identify as “Restore” voters in a general election are willing to switch to Reform. Rob Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester, notes that the “tactical logic” in Makerfield is stark, as smaller parties have no realistic path to winning an MP seat in the constituency.
The current landscape marks a departure from the recent Gorton and Denton byelection, where both Labour and the Green Party campaigned as the primary challengers to Reform. In Makerfield, the alignment of progressive voters appears more unified. Tom de Grunwald, founder of the tactical voting website StopReformUK.vote, states that these polling figures confirm that progressive voters are “not waiting to be told” and are acting independently to prevent a split vote.
In the July 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats and Greens combined for 11.5% of the vote in Makerfield, a margin significantly larger than the narrow poll lead currently held by Andy Burnham.
The role of misinformation
The campaign has been marked by a surge in digital misinformation, according to research from the Social Market Foundation (SMF). The SMF analyzed over 1,800 Facebook posts across four local community groups and discovered a fourfold increase in content classified as misinformation. This flood of false information included AI-generated images of streets lined with Reform flags and fabricated depictions of Labour and Green hot air balloons flying over the area, often originating from accounts and organizations researchers characterized as fake.
The Makerfield race serves as a “dummy run” for future national contests, according to political commentator Peter Kellner. The outcome here suggests that upcoming general elections may feature two distinct, parallel battles: one for dominance on the left and another on the right, rather than traditional head-to-head contests between only two major parties.
What the results could mean for the future
While Andy Burnham currently holds a lead, analysts emphasize that the victory is not guaranteed. James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs research at Opinium, warns that Labour’s five-point lead is narrower than the vote share currently held by the Restore Britain party. If the anti-Labour vote remains divided, it could deliver a victory to the party in the short term but potentially leave Burnham vulnerable in future cycles.
Professor Rob Ford suggests that the tactical squeeze on the right is failing because some voters may simply refuse to participate if their preferred option is not viable, rather than shifting their support to Reform. As the final week of the campaign begins, the ability of each side to “clean up” their respective side of the political divide will likely determine the final margin of victory.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are Green and Lib Dem voters supporting Labour in Makerfield?
Yes. According to Opinium polling, more than half of those who would vote Green or Lib Dem in a general election are planning to vote for Andy Burnham in this byelection.
Why is the tactical voting strategy struggling on the right?
Professor Rob Ford suggests that Restore Britain voters are less inclined to switch their support to Reform UK, and some may choose not to vote at all rather than backing an alternative candidate.
What impact has misinformation had on the byelection?
Research from the Social Market Foundation found a fourfold increase in misinformation on local Facebook groups, including AI-generated images and content from what appeared to be fake news organizations.
Will the trend of tactical voting observed in Makerfield become the new standard for national general elections?
