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Cabinet Formation Nears Completion: GERB, BSP, and ITN Likely Participants

The political landscape in Bulgaria is shifting, as key players gear up for the formation of a new government. Tatiaana Doncheva, leader of "Dvizhenie 21," has confirmed that a cabinet is almost ready, with the likelihood of GERB, BSP, and ITN as sure participants.

According to Doncheva, the question remains whether the Democratic Bulgaria (DB) coalition will join the future administration. She underscored that the cabinet in negotiation includes representatives from BSP, GERB, and ITN. The uncertainty lies in securing the remaining votes and potential exits, such as the coalition led by Hristo Ivanov.

Doncheva hinted at the challenges in this political arithmetic, describing the process as a test of political maneuvering. The fate of Ahmed Dogan’s movement, DPS, and the influence of Deyan Peevski’s Coalition for Bulgaria (CfB) remain to be seen.

Doncheva believes that there’s no reason why Dogan would seek behind-the-scenes support for the government. She argues that Peevski’s influence is secured through his people in other political formations, and he is currently at the negotiating table.

However, Doncheva is against the participation of BSP – United Left in such a government. She asserts that the party’s current leaders seem to believe that BSP cannot remain in opposition and must be part of the ruling coalition. Doncheva warning, however, is that whoever becomes the new leader will have to pay off the party’s debts, potentially diminishing its electoral prospects.

The appointment of a new Chief Prosecutor, with Borislav Sarafov being the current front-runner, is also a topic of discussion. Doncheva contends that despite his role as a placeholder for Boyko Borisov and Deyan Peevski, there’s no critical consequence if Sarafov is elected on January 16th. She suggests that the President, Rumen Radev, could refuse to sign the decree, effectively revoking Sarafov’s appointment.

Adding further intrigue, Doncheva mentions that the Constitutional Court’s decision on whether the "Vyezni" (Glory) party enters Parliament may also impact the cabinet’s trajectory. As negotiations continue, the stage is set for a dramatic conclusion to Bulgaria’s political drama.

Bulgarian Parliament Approves Draft Laws Targeting Rift in Orthodox Church

The Bulgarian National Assembly has voted in favor of three draft laws in their first reading, aiming to limit the influence of the Bulgarian Orthodox Old Calendar Church (BPOCC). The move comes after the Supreme Court of Cassation (VKS) registered the BPOCC as a religion.

The "Revival" party’s draft law prohibits the registration of more than one legal entity, claiming to be part of the Orthodox Church, using the name "Orthodox". Meanwhile, GERB‘s proposal designates the Bulgarian Patriarchate as the sole representative of the traditional Eastern Orthodox faith. The final draft law, proposed by the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), seeks to register religions in contradiction with current laws.

"Revival" argued that allowing the BPOCC to register would cause serious divisions within Bulgarian society. Zlatan Zlatanov, presenting the draft laws, stated that registering the BPOCC poses a threat to all Eastern Orthodox churches.

GERB’s Georgi Georgiev supported the draft laws, asserting that only the Bulgarian Patriarchate has been preserving Bulgarian nationalism for centuries. He reasoned that any Orthodox Church not recognized by the Ecumenical Councils and cannon law cannot claim to be truly Orthodox.

Following a recess to discuss road safety, the "Revival" draft law won sufficient votes to pass, with support only from "We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria" (PPDB) and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF). However, the draft laws proposed by GERB and BSP were overwhelmingly rejected.

Earlier today, there were heated exchanges during the premier’s question time when Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev was grilled about the registration of the Old Calendar Church. The incident highlighted the political tensions surrounding this issue.

In the next stage of the legislative process, the law will explicitly state that only the Bulgarian Patriarchate can use the term "Bulgarian Orthodox Church," and no other religious organization can use any variation of this term.

Title: Political Turmoil in Bulgaria: Parties Struggle to Form Government Amidst Internal Conflicts and International Pressures

In a year marked by political instability and division, Bulgaria’s parliamentary elections in December 2024 resulted in a deadlock, leaving the country with a hung parliament and no clear path to forming a stable government. This analysis, conducted by the Institute for Strategies and Analyses (ISA), explores the key political developments and challenges Bulgaria faced in 2024.

Constitutional Crisis and Deadlock

The year began with political parties grappling over constitutional reforms, particularly those concerning the role of the president. This power struggle culminated in a lengthy and contentious parliamentary session to elect a new speaker, setting the stage for a year of political gridlock. Despite the protracted negotiations, no government has been formed as of December 2024.

Partisan Interests over Public Will

Bulgarian politics in 2024 was characterized by a stark disconnect between the political elite and the broader public. This dynamic was further exacerbated by aggressive public communication, Ultimately, this lack of engagement and trust led to a population alienated from its political representatives.

Power Vacuum and International Pressures

The political stalemate in Bulgaria unfolded against the backdrop of evolving global dynamics. Geopolitical shifts, namely the conflict in Ukraine and escalating tensions between major powers, added complexity to the country’s internal struggles. Moreover, Bulgaria’s strategic position in southeast Europe places it at the crossroads of competing international interests, which further complicated domestic political negotiations.

Key Party Developments and Challenges

• GEER-SDS: Despite being the largest party, GERB-SDS faced challenges in forging a coalition, with multiple potential partners calling for the resignation of its leader, Boyko Borisov. As negotiations continued, Borisov’s political future remained uncertain, although his party remained the viable option for forming a government.
• PP-DB: After a tumultuous year marked by scandals and infighting, PP-DB found itself on the brink of collapse. The party’s once-exalted rhetoric of moral renewal was tarnished, leaving it struggling for relevance in Bulgaria’s political landscape.
• Vazrazhdane ("Renaissance"): Vazrazhdane capitalized on discontent with established parties, focusing its campaign on nationalist and anti-EU sentiments. However, its anti-systemic stance may limit its ability to form a coalition and maintain relevance in the long run.
• DPS – Ново начало (DPS – New Beginning): The party experienced a dramatic resurgence under the leadership of Dessislav Perezki, who consolidated power within the party and presented a strong challenge to traditional political forces. Dezember. The party’s new course focused on pragmatism and economic development.

Economic Progress and Challenges

Despite the political tumult, Bulgaria’s economy grew steadily in 2024. The country made significant strides in its green energy transition, reducing greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining economic growth. However, persistent issues such as corruption, low wages, and brain drain continued to hinder long-term economic progress. Moreover, the country’s reliance on energy imports made it vulnerable to global price fluctuations and geopolitical tensions.

Looking Ahead in 2025

As Bulgaria enters 2025, the political landscape remains fraught with uncertainty. With no clear path to forming a stable government, the country risks further political fragmentation and erosion of public trust in its institutions. The outcome of this protracted power struggle will have significant implications not only for Bulgaria but also for the wider region and European Union.

Institute for Strategies and Analyses (ISA) is a Bulgarian think tank focusing on strategic analysis, political risk assessment, and policy recommendations. The институт е смеstånd към непрекаennzeichnete, професионалe, и неутралe изследвания и студиа (www.isainstitute.bg)

This article is the intellectual property of the Institute for Strategies and Analyses. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher.

Headline: Crunch Time for Government Formation: GERB, DBC, BSP, and ITN Set for Crucial Talks as Fresh Elections Loom

Subhead: With multiple parties at the table, Bulgaria braces for another round of negotiations ahead of potential snap polls.

Bulgaria’s political landscape is abuzz as stakeholders gear up for a make-or-break day on Thursday, January 2, 2025. The country’s top parties, including GERB, DBC, BSP, and ITN, are set to reconvene, with the specter of fresh elections hanging over the proceedings.

The ongoing negotiations have seen some progress between GERB and DBC, with both parties expressing a desire to form a stable government. However, sources close to the talks reveal that the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) has tabled demands that have sparked intense discussions, throwing a spanner in the works.

According to a DBC representative, the party is optimistic about its potential coalition with GERB, with a combined 88 deputies in Parliament. However, they concede that securing the support of the PP (There Is Such a People) party is an uphill task. Insiders have described PP’s stance as "de facto obstructive," with their demands deemed by some as "unreasonable" and "endless."

The mood is equally pessimistic regarding a potential coalition involving the controversial "Prolonging the Changes" (PP) party and ITN, which has categorically ruled out any form of association with PP.

Despite the challenges, all parties remain at the negotiating table, with Thursday’s talks likely to focus on hammering out a coalition agreement. Sources close to BSP, however, caution that the party has yet to put forward its proposals, adding another layer of complexity to the negotiations.

The last meeting between GERB and DBC took place on December 30, 2024, with both parties unveiling their draft coalitions agreements. The key priorities outlined in these documents include tackling the public finance crisis, addressing energy issues, judicial reform, battling corruption, and improving water infrastructure. Mechanisms for selecting regulatory bodies also figured prominently in the discussions.

As Bulgaria navigating these politically tumultuous waters, all eyes are on Thursday’s crucial talks. While an optimist might envision a breakthrough leading to a stable government, a more realistic view anticipates a solid legislative framework to guide the country through the remainder of this parliamentary term.

GERB leader Boiko Borisov unexpectedly announced that there are prospects for forming a government. GERB has sent invitations to the Democratic Bulgaria (DB), Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), and أقصى التكنولوجيا الجديدة (ITN) for official talks to form a cabinet. Borisov explicitly excludes “Continuity” from this potential future coalition. In parliament corridors, Borisov clarified that there’s a difference between talks and negotiations. He stated that today, GERB’s negotiating team will send letters to parties that showed interest in forming a government, inviting DB, BSP, and ITN. Borisov confirmed that he had discussed the timeline with President Radev, expressing confidence that they wouldfinalize the government successfully. Borisov proposed swift negotiations led by Tomislav Donchev, Raya Nazaryan, Daniel Mitov, and Rosen Zhelyazkov, with separate meetings with each party. However, Borisov refused to discuss former Finance Minister Asen Vassilev, who had allegedly declined to apologize for past actions. Gerb’s surprise move was met with skepticism, as DB denied any talks with GERB.

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Title: Borisov Shockingly Announces Coalition Government with GERB, BSP, and ITN; PPDet Left Disappointed

In a surprising turn of events, Prime Minister Boyko Borisov has revealed plans to form a new coalition government in Bulgaria, bringing together his center-right GERB party with the leftist Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and the liberal pro-European ITN. This move has left the democratic coalition Party for Bulgaria (PP/DB), which did not make it into the next parliament, feeling bitter and left out.

The New Alliance

Borisov, who has been the country’s Prime Minister since 2009 (with a brief interruption in 2013-2014), made the announcement on Monday, following the 4th of April parliamentary elections. His GERB party emerged as the largest party, but fell short of an overall majority. The BSP finished a close second, while the ITN, led by former Bizones President Rumen Radev, secured a significant number of seats.

In a joint press conference, the three parties declared they would work together towards a "strong and stable government" that would focus on "欧洲一体化 [Europeanization], economic growth, and the rule of law." The new coalition, which has been dubbed the "3+1" government due to the disproportionate GERB majority, is expected to be sworn in within the next few weeks.

PP/DB Reaction

Meanwhile, the PP/DB coalition, led by former prime minister Kiril Petkov and veteran politician Asen Vasilev, is left out in the cold. Despite their strong showing in the elections, securing over 26% of the vote, they found themselves unable to form a government with only 68 out of 240 seats in the National Assembly.

"We’re disappointed, but not surprised," said a spokesperson from the PP/DB, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Borisov will do whatever it takes to stay in power, even if it means forming a cynical coalition with his political enemies. We had better aspirations for this country."

The spokesperson also raised concerns about the new government’s composition and policies: "We had hoped that a center-left, pro-European coalition could finally bring real change to Bulgaria. However, we now have a government that includes extremist elements and is unlikely to push for crucial reforms."

What’s Next?

The new coalition, despite its unexpected nature, enjoys a comfortable majority in parliament, raising questions about its longevity and the potential for policy disagreements between the partners. While the radical nationalist party Vytnarעו Peninsula renders certain policies off-limits, the coalition’s policy on Europe, economic reforms, and corruption remains to be seen.

For the PP/DB, the next challenge is to consolidate its position as the main opposition force and maintain the momentum it gained during the election campaign. In the meantime, the political landscape in Bulgaria continues to shift, with surprise alliances and unexpected power dynamics.