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Ukraine Reports Heavy Losses for Russian and North Korean Forces in Kursk Region

by Chief Editor January 4, 2025
written by Chief Editor

Headline: Heavy Losses for Russian and North Korean Forces in Kursk Clashes

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has revealed that Russian and North Korean forces suffered significant casualties in battles near the Russian city of Kursk. In his Saturday night address, Zelensky cited data from the army’s top command to make the revelation.

"In the battles yesterday and today, specifically in the village of Mahnovka in the Kursk region, the Russian army lost an entire battalion of North Korean infantry soldiers and Russian paratroopers," Zelensky said. However, he offered no further details.

A battalion typically consists of several hundred soldiers, but the number can vary.

Earlier, it was reported that Ukraine had struck a Russian command post in the nearby village of Marino. According to Russian military reports, air defense units shot down four Ukrainian missiles in the area. The regional governor, Alexander Khinshtein, confirmed that the attack had damaged a multi-story residential building and other structures in a neighboring village.

In a statement on Telegram, the Ukrainian army claimed that the strikes aimed to disrupt Russia’s ability to terrorize innocent Ukrainian civilians. A separate post shared a video showing damage to a Russian base in Ivanovske, near Marino. However, Reuters noted that it could not independently verify information from either side.

Governor Khinshtein also reported that the strike on Ivanovske had damaged windows in a multi-story residential building and private homes, as well as an elementary school, a pharmacy, and a store.

In another development, the Ukrainian military once again targeted the Kursk region. Reports suggest there were injuries and material damage, but details are still emerging.

This is a developing story. More information will be added as it becomes available.

January 4, 2025 0 comments
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World

Russia Advises Germany to Focus on U.S. Bases

by Chief Editor January 3, 2025
written by Chief Editor

Article

German FM Berbock Urged to Address Russia Advises Germany to Focus on American Bases"</strong></p>”>U.S. Bases on Home Soil Before Talking about Russian Facilities in Syria

The Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, has slammed German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock for commenting on Russian military bases in Syria while staying silent about U.S. facilities in Germany. "Instead of discussing Russian bases in Syria, she should address the American ones in her country," Zakharova said, as reported by TASS.

Zakharova was responding to Berbock’s suggestion that Russia should withdraw its military bases from Syria. "I have a question: isn’t it time for the German Foreign Minister to say something similar to Washington?" the diplomat wrote on her Telegram channel.

Earlier, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service claimed that the U.S. and UK were preparing terrorist attacks on Russian military bases in Syria to pressure Moscow into withdrawing its troops.

Meanwhile, Berbock is set to visit Syria for a one-day trip with her French counterpart, Jean-Yves Le Drian, on behalf of the EU. They plan to meet with Ahmad al-Sharaa, the new leader of Syria’s governing council.

"Today’s trip – along with my French colleague and on behalf of the EU – sends a clear signal to the Syrians: a new political start between Europe and Syria, between Germany and Syria is possible," Berbock said before departing for Damascus.

Berbock and Le Drian are the first high-ranking EU diplomats to visit Syria since rebels seized control of Damascus on December 8. Their visit comes after President Bashar al-Assad’s ouster after more than 13 years of civil war.

"In Syria, we want to promote a peaceful and inclusive transition in the service of the Syrian people and regional stability," Le Drian wrote on Twitter.

Since Assad’s removal, Islamist rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have been trying to assure Arab countries and the international community that they will govern on behalf of all Syrians and not impose an Islamic revolution. Western governments have started opening channels with al-Sharaa and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and discussions are underway to remove the group’s classification as a terrorist organization.

Berbock said she is traveling to Syria with an "outstretched hand," as well as "clear expectations" for the new leaders, who she says will be judged by their actions.

The EU will raise the issue of Russia’s military bases in Syria with the new leadership, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in December. He maintained that many ministers believe a dialogue cannot take place without addressing Russian influence, particularly its military bases.

TASS cited sources claiming that the bases "continue to function as normal." Reuters sources also reported that Moscow has no plans to withdraw its troops from the bases. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov revealed that Moscow is discussing the fate of its bases with the new authorities.

January 3, 2025 0 comments
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World

Mystery Surrounds Death of LGBTQ+ Tour Organizer in Russian Prison

by Chief Editor January 3, 2025
written by Chief Editor

Russian Businessman Found Dead in Moscow Jail Amidst Crackdown on LGBTQ+ Community

A Russian businessman, Andrei Kotov, has died in a Moscow detention facility just days before New Year’s. Kotov, 48, was the owner of Men Travel, a tour agency catering to the LGBTQ+ community. His death comes amidst a broader crackdown on Russia‘s LGBTQ+ community, with activists and friends questioning the official narrative of suicide.

What We Know So Far

Andrei Kotov was arrested on November 30 and charged with "extremism" for organizing tours that allegedly promoted LGBTQ+ propaganda. He was found dead in a Moscow detention center on December 29. Here’s what we know about the events leading up to his death:

  • Arrest and Charges: Kotov was arrested on November 30 and charged with organizing and participating in an "extremist organization." He maintained his innocence, stating that his company only dealt in tourism. He claimed to have been tortured with electric shocks during his detention.

  • Death in Custody: Kotov was found dead in his cell on December 29. Initial reports by Moscow Komsomol and Telegram channels Baza and Mash, both with links to law enforcement, suggested suicide. However, human rights activists and Kotov’s friends have questioned this account, citing possible torture or murder by authorities.

  • Inconsistencies and Questions: The time of Kotov’s death was initially reported as around 4:00 AM local time, but later changed to around 2:00 AM by a member of Russia’s Presidential Council on Human Rights. A source from the Federal Penitentiary Service told RIA Novosti that Kotov’s body had "self-inflicted cuts," while an anonymous Telegram channel reported finding a razor blade in his cell but no suicide note.

  • Investigation: Russian authorities have launched an investigation into Kotov’s death. The Investigative Committee, Federal Penitentiary Service, and the Prosecutor’s Office are reportedly considering charges against detention center staff for negligence or incitement to suicide.

  • Allegations of Torture and Abuse: Human rights group Gulagu.net has disputed the suicide narrative, claiming Kotov was subjected to sexual violence, placed in a lower-status prisoner category, and extorted for money. They allege that guards created pressure on Kotov by spreading rumors about his sexual orientation and his involvement in organizing LGBTQ+ tours.

  • Political Killing Claims: Journalist Alex Mur, a friend of Kotov, went as far as to describe Kotov’s death as a "political killing," speculating that he may have been murdered on the orders of the Kremlin.

  • Additional Charges: A week before his death, Kotov faced additional charges of producing child pornography, with reports alleging he secretly filmed minors in changing rooms. These claims remain unconfirmed, and Kotov’s defense has not verified the existence of a second case.

As the investigation into Kotov’s death continues, his passing serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing persecution of Russia’s LGBTQ+ community. We will continue to follow this story as it unfolds. For more important news, follow us on Google News Showcase.

January 3, 2025 0 comments
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World

"Russia Advises Germany to Focus on American Bases"

by Chief Editor January 3, 2025
written by Chief Editor

Headline: Germany‘s Foreign Minister Should Address U.S. Bases, Not Russia‘s, Says Moscow

Subheading: Maria Zakharova calls out Annalena Baerbock‘s remarks on Russia’s military bases in Syria.

Article:

In a surprising turn of events, the spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, has urged German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to address the presence of U.S. military bases in her own country instead of focusing on Russia’s military installations in Syria. Zakharova made this comment on Friday, as reported by TASS.

Baerbock had previously stated that it was time for Russia to pull out its military bases from Syria. In response, Zakharova Operated in her Telegram channel, "And this comes from the foreign minister of a country that hosts U.S. military bases. I have a question: isn’t it time for the head of the German Foreign Ministry to say something similar to Washington?"

Earlier, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service had alleged that the U.S. and the UK were preparing terrorist attacks against Russian military bases in Syria to persuade Moscow to withdraw its forces.

The German Foreign Minister’s remarks come amidst a backdrop of shifting political dynamics in Syria. Baerbock is scheduled to visit Syria for a one-day trip, accompanied by her French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian, to meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa, the newly appointed leader of the country.

"Today’s trip — with my French colleague and on behalf of the EU — sends a clear signal to the Syrians: a new political chapter between Europe and Syria, between Germany and Syria, is possible," Baerbock said before departing for Damascus.

This visit marks the first high-level diplomatic mission from the European Union to Syria since the opposition forces took control of Damascus on December 8, ending more than a decade of civil war and the Assad family’s reign.

Meanwhile, the EU has signaled its intention to raise the issue of Russia’s military bases in Syria with the new leadership, stating that this is a prerequisite for any dialogue. However, Russia has maintained its position, with the Kremlin stating that the fate of its military bases in Syria is subject to further discussion with the new authorities in the country.

January 3, 2025 0 comments
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World

The Kim-Putin Alliance: Testing North Korea’s Ties with China

by Chief Editor January 2, 2025
written by Chief Editor

Headline:
China‘s Growing Concerns as North Korea Deepens Military Ties with Russia

Subhead:
北京的忧虑:朝鲜与俄罗斯的安全关系加深(Newsweek)

Article:

Beijing’s optimism towards Pyongyang appears to be waning as China’s diplomats have detected growing differences in their bilateral relations this year, signals that may indicate a rising discontent with Kim Jong-un’s deepening military cooperation with Russia, according to Newsweek.

Analysts told Newsweek that the strengthening of Moscow and Pyongyang’s security ties doesn’t reflect well on China, which is reportedly anxious about potential Russian arms supplies to North Korea that could further destabilize its backyard.

The U.S. and its allies fear Russia might provide North Korea with arms and technical assistance in exchange for the latter’s troops and ammunition, potentially bolstering its UN-sanctioned ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs.

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated, "We are ready to work with DPRK to protect, consolidate, and develop the China-DPRK relations in accordance with the important consensus reached by leaders of the two countries."

However, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell noted, "The topic that’s becoming increasingly uncomfortable for Chinese interlocutors is indeed North Korea’s engagement with Russia. In some of the discussions we’ve had, it seems we’re informing China about things they weren’t necessarily aware of, respecting the pursuits of North Korea."

What’s Next?

U.S. officials claim that Russia has promised to deliver MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters in exchange for North Korean troops, while South Korea reports it may soon dispatch more troops to Russia. Meanwhile, China maintains its non-interference stance in North Korea-Russia relations, improbable to openly express displeasure or significantly curtail its economic and diplomatic support for Russia in the near future, as the ‘no-limits’ partners keep up their united front against what they perceive as U.S. hegemony.

January 2, 2025 0 comments
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World

Russia’s Dossiers Make a Comeback: The Search for a New Pavlik Morozov

by Chief Editor January 1, 2025
written by Chief Editor

Title: The Resurgence of ‘Denunciation’ in Russia: A Modern Take on Stalin‘s ‘Hero’

In the 1930s, during Stalin’s purges in the Soviet Union, a young boy named Pavel Morozov, nicknamed ‘Pavlik’, became a national hero. His story, deeply mythologized, tells of him denouncing his father for selling state documents to "bandits and enemies of the Soviet state". Pavlik’s tale was used to encourage other Soviet children to report on their parents, sparking a culture of denunciation that continues to resonate nearly a century later.

The Rise of Denunciation in Putin’s Russia

Recently, news reports have indicated a significant resurgence of denunciation in Russia under President Putin’s leadership. A suspiciously prolific informant has been sending thousands of denunciations to various Russian authorities, including the Main Prosecutor’s Office, military prosecutors, the Federal Security Service, the penitentiary service, and the Ministry of Justice.

Identified as ‘Anna Korobkova’, a woman supposedly dedicated to reporting those "discrediting the Russian armed forces", this individual has boasted of sending 1357 denunciations between February and September 2023 alone. The law enabling such denunciations was signed by Putin following his invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Unmasking the Serial Denunciator

Russian anthropologist Alexandra Arkhipova led the investigation into ‘Korobkova’, who had written to her employer, a Moscow university, demanding that a staff member be fired for referring to the conflict in Ukraine as a ‘war’, instead of using Putin’s euphemism ‘special military operation’. Soon after, Arkhipova left Russia for France, but ‘Korobkova’ claimed victories: six people had been fired from their jobs, and 15 others had been fined as a result of her denunciations.

Using comparative linguistic analysis of ‘Korobkova’s’ writings, Arkhipova and linguist Daniil Scorinkin concluded that the prolific informant was, in fact, Ivan Abaturov, a former lecturer at an Ekaterinburg college and Stalin admirer. The BBC reports that correspondence from Abaturov and ‘Korobkova’ shares the same IP address, confirming they originated from the same device.

The Dark Legacy of Pavlik Morozov

The true story of Pavlik Morozov, and his supposed heroism, has been called into question since the 1980s. However, the cult of denunciation lives on, sending hundreds of thousands of people to labor camps like the Gulag.

Since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine two years ago, the practice of denunciation has regained pride of place in Russian society. As Putin exhorts "the scum and traitors" to be "spat out like a fly" as part of society’s "necessary detoxification", volunteers eager to denounce their fellow citizens abound.

Real-Life Consequences

In one chilling example, a 46-year-old hairdresser named Anna Alexandrova from Saint Petersburg was prosecuted for "publicly distributing false information" about the Russian army after a neighbor filed a complaint. Similarly, a 68-year-old pediatrician in Moscow was sentenced to five years in a penal colony for reportedly telling a patient’s mother that her husband, who died in combat, was a "legitimate target" for Ukraine.

Like Morozov in the 1930s, children too are participating in this modern-day witch hunt. Irina Gen, a teacher in the city of Penza, received a five-year suspended sentence and was banned from working in schools after her 13- and 14-year-old students reported her for "spreading false news" during a lesson.

The Organized Nature of Denunciation

Konstantin Sonin, an economist and political commentator at the University of Chicago, tells The Times that the intricate nature of the ‘Korobkova’ case suggests that denunciation in Russia may be more organized than previously thought. "The simple conclusion is that denunciations are not written by everybody or by many Russians, but by a small group of activists," he says.

January 1, 2025 0 comments
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World

Ukraine throttles Russian gas supply to Europe at midnight

by Chief Editor January 1, 2025
written by Chief Editor

titular European Gas Dependence on Russia Set to End as New Year Approaches

The era of Russia’s dominance on Europe’s gas market is drawing to a close, according to Reuters, as deliveries via Ukraine are set to cease on New Year’s Eve. The shutdown marks the end of a lengthy period during which Moscow held a significant position in Europe’s energy landscape.

Russia’s Oldest Gas Export Route to Europe Shut Down

The pipeline, a relic of the Soviet era, was scheduled to close by the end of 2024 due to the expiration of a five-year transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine. However, data from Ukraine’s gas transit operator revealed on Tuesday that Russia had not requested gas flows for January 1.

EU Dramatically Reduces Dependence on Russian Gas

Following the outbreak of war in Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union (EU) has actively sought alternative gas sources, reducing its reliance on Russian imports. Remaining buyers such as Slovakia and Austria have secured alternative supplies, with analysts predicting minimal market impact from the halt in Russian flows. European benchmark gas prices held relatively steady at €48.50 per megawatt-hour (MWh) on Tuesday.

Geopolitical Significance Far Greater Than Market Impact

The cessation of Russian gas flows will have profound geopolitical implications for both Europe and Russia. The EU’s decreased dependence on Russian gas has played into the hands of competing suppliers such as the United States, Qatar, and Norway. Russia’s state-controlled gas giant Gazprom has suffered major losses as a result – registering a $7 billion loss in 2023 alone, its first annual deficit since 1999.

European Economy Braces for Impact

The loss of cheap Russian gas supplies will weigh heavily on Europe, contributing to economic slowdowns, inflation spikes, and household energy cost crises. While Europe has swiftly found alternative energy sources, the disappearance of Russian gas supplies heightens long-term concerns about global competitiveness and Germany’s industrial future.

A Half-Century of Russian Gas dominance Under Threat

Russia and the Soviet Union spent decades building a significant market share in Europe’s gas industry, peaking at around 35%. However, the war in Ukraine has effectively dismantled this business for Gazprom. Most Russian gas pipelines to Europe, including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream beneath the Baltic Sea, have been shut down. The Ukrainian route – which transports Siberian gas through the city of Sudja, currently under Ukrainian military control, into Russia’s Kursk region – will soon close as well.

Ukraine Refuses to Negotiate New Transit Deal

Ukraine, which reportedly earned around $800 million annually from transit fees, has refused to discuss a new agreement with Russia. Meanwhile, Gazprom stands to lose nearly $5 billion in European sales through Ukraine. While the closure of this transit route is unlikely to trigger another gas price surge in Europe, as remaining volumes are relatively small, it does mark a significant milestone in Europe’s energy transition.

Russia’s Gas Exports via Ukraine in 2023

In 2023, Russia transported around 15 billion cubic meters of gas through Ukraine – just 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019. On Tuesday, Gazprom announced plans to reduce gas flows to 37.2 million cubic meters, down from 42.4 million cubic meters on Monday. However, later reports from Ukraine’s gas transit operator stated that Russia had not requested any gas flows for January 1 via the Ukrainian pipeline.

Moldova Set to Suffer as Supply Halted

The closure of the Ukrainian route will significantly impact Moldova, which was once part of the Soviet Union. Meanwhile, Hungary and other countries continue to receive Russian gas via the Turkish Stream pipeline beneath the Black Sea. Hungary had expressed a desire to maintain the Ukrainian route in addition to Turkish Stream.

As the clock nears midnight on New Year’s Eve, Europe will turn a significant page in its energy history, bidding farewell to an era of dependence on Russian gas and ushering in a new chapter of energy diversity and resilience. The geopolitical and economic implications of this shift will continue to unfold in the months and years ahead.

Source: Reuters, News.bg

January 1, 2025 0 comments
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World

Ukraine Unveils Surprise Strike for New Year’s Eve; Zelenskyy and Putin Prepare

by Chief Editor December 31, 2024
written by Chief Editor

Ukraine Plans Surprise Strike as Christmas Approaches; Zelensky and Putin Hold Talks

In an unexpected turn of events, Ukrainian officials have hinted at a potential surprise military operation during the Christmas period. The announcement comes amidst ongoing peace talks between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.

A high-ranking Ukrainian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, revealed that the military is preparing an "unexpected move" to catch Russian forces off guard. The official declined to provide specific details, stating only that the operation was designed to "send a strong message to the invading forces."

The revelation comes as both Zelensky and Putin engage in talks aimed at ending the nearly year-long conflict. The two leaders held a marathon round of discussions in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, with both sides expressing a desire for a negotiated settlement.

Zelensky, who previously ruled out any territorial concessions to Russia, appears to have softened his stance. He suggested that he could consider certain "compromises" if they were in the best interests of Ukraine. However, he maintained that any peace deal would require the full withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory.

For his part, Putin reiterated Russia’s demands for the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, as well as official recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea. He also struck a conciliatory note, suggesting that Russia was open to discussions on a possible ceasefire.

The prospect of a surprise Ukrainian military operation has raised fears of further bloodshed during the holiday season. However, some analysts suggest that the Ukrainian move could be a calculated gamble to strengthen its position at the negotiating table.

As the conflict grinds on, the people of Ukraine and Russia remain hopeful that the coming new year will bring an end to the fighting. With both sides committed to finding a peaceful resolution, the next few weeks will be critical in determining the future of the region.

December 31, 2024 0 comments
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World

Bearing the Brunt: A transformation of the Russian Army

by Chief Editor December 30, 2024
written by Chief Editor

Title: Russian Military Faltering: From Fails to Adaptation and New Military Developments in the War News | Today's Latest Stories | Reuters”>Ukraine Conflict

Subhead: Two years into the war, Moscow adapts with a focus on boots on the ground, domestic mobilization, and hi-tech, "next-gen" weaponry like the new hypersonic missiles.

The tables have turned, and they’ve turned for a long time. Russia is still bleeding losses.

In what seems to be a slow pivot from President Putin’s earlier promise of a “ lightning war”, Russian military fortunes appear to be stagnating or backsliding as the battle to conquer Ukraine has proven considerably costlier in resources and blood.

The brutal, stalemate-ridden conflict—fought against resilient Ukrainian troops emboldened and bolstered by Western allies—has prompted an unexpected reckoning in Russian tactical thinking, say military observers, even if publicly, they cling doggedly to rhetoric of unstinting Russian resilience.

The news comes against the backdrop of reported progress made by Ukraine into Russian soil with its military-grade, all-weather Leopard and M-1 tanks provided by Germany.

Faltering Onslaughts, Ruthless Adaptation

In a seeming 180-degree about-turn from 2014, not a day without us, when an elated Russian elite bragged to be in sync with the European heartbeat, this decade has revealed that the "near abroad", so often chafed and exploited by Soviet expansionism, doesn’t cede without bloodily expensive cost to Russian revisionist aspirations. Here’s where unplanned tutorship is beginning.

The past six months in this brutal dance in the war-wracked borderlands reveal what seems, if not total breakdown, considerable strain of once-inflexible Russian orthodoxy that its war plans be carried without apparent compromise on key principles:

Invisible FOMAC: Absolutely Not. Moscow is being humiliated; tanks and hardware loss has accelerated this year (Ukraine is tallying roughly double the kills to Russian machine deaths, by last month.)

Injured, Irresolute yet Ambitious, the Beast (still) stirs…
The brutalization of Putinism is morphing, according to the current pace of developments—flickerings on its own terrain indicate the battle ahead. Putin still believes this ‘Great New Era’ needs further sacrifice (especially when facing pushback to keep up pressure at home, particularly concerning food & essential goods and wages.)

And thus, more aggressive rhetoric as seen with fresh provocations across Syria and Venezuela—and now threatening Switzerland?, Moscow is going ahead with conscripting students who can opt in, doubling as an investment opportunity in exchange of "voluntarily" manpower, to continue onslaught with fresh reserves on the embattled southern sector of eastern Europe.

"When we will leave the region – this, our land?" retorted, Defense Minister Shoygu captured on cameras (after days when Russian sources cited the new strategic offensive—on "free Ukraine in full swing—by July next year—this summer—to capture remaining "Donbas republics", (with Moscow rebranding those as ‘territories liberated since 2014 in Ukraine)—not before late December, now extended until ‘later’ winter and into late February, per officials))—delineating not one but now many "secessionist", puppet territories) under Kiev’s nose to establish "friendlier" "People’s Governance". And no one expected Ukrainian President ZELENSKY was preparing a daring incursion that Moscow has begun reacting to—to snatch out crucial strategic fo

December 30, 2024 0 comments
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World

The Azeri Plane Crash: Why It Could Significantly Impact Putin

by Chief Editor December 29, 2024
written by Chief Editor

Title: Kremlin’s High Stakes: Putin’s Rare Apology and the Undersea Tensions

In an unexpected move, Vladimir Putin, a leader known for his unyielding stance, attempted to express regret following the New Year’s Day incident where an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane was shot down over Russia. While not admitting blame directly, Putin acknowledged in a phone call with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev that the "tragic incident occurred within Russia’s airspace." This unusual candor reflects the delicate balance of Putin’s position, which can be undermined by unexpected crises.

The New Year’s Gambit

As 2024 drew to a close, Putin was riding high on a wave of optimism. At his marathon annual press conference just days earlier, he was confident, even cocky, boasting about the capabilities of the new Russian intermediate-range missile "Orenburg" and salivating at the prospect of a "high-tech" duel with the best of Western air defense systems. But as the new year began, Moscow seemed to have pulled off a brazen act of defiance, using a tanker from its "phantom fleet" to sever undersea internet cables in the Baltic Sea.

Submarine Wars

According to Finnish authorities, the petroleum tanker Eagle S sliced through the Estlink 2 power cable connecting Finland and Estonia, as well as several data communication cables, by dragging its anchor across the seafloor. This is just the latest in a string of such incidents. In December, the Chinese-registered Yi Peng 3 apparently snipped two more data cables. Back in October 2023, another Chinese vessel, the Newnew Polar Bear, sheared off the Balticconnector gas pipeline and two data cables before heading north towards Russia.

Western intelligence agencies suspect that while these acts are carried out by civilian ships, they are coordinated by Russia’s GRU military intelligence. Although its name translates to "Main Directorate for Deep-Sea Research," GUGI, an undersea research agency under Russia’s defense ministry, specializes in precisely these types of operations. Boasting a fleet of mini-submarines and other platforms, Russia could quickly escalate tensions underwater.

Meanwhile, the "Yantar," GUGI’s "oceanographic research vessel," has been mapping underwater pipelines and cables, most recently trailing an Irish vessel while ostensibly surveying transatlantic communications. Given that over 95% of the UK’s internet traffic travels through undersea cables, the potential threat is clear.

Vulnerable Links

While there are usually backup systems and workarounds when these links are compromised, repairing the Estlink 2 cable will take months, and the national power grid continues to function normally. Similarly, when the Yi Peng 3 severed a fiber-optic cable carrying a third of Lithuania’s internet traffic, it was quickly rerouted. But gas pipelines are a different beast. If enough communication cables are cut, as a royal naval expert puts it, "everything starts to slow down and degrade," including the responsiveness of the global financial system, which processes nearly $8 trillion in transactions daily through these cables.

Delicate Balance

The intentional targeting of European countries’ infrastructure is Moscow’s way of demonstrating it can cause significant disruption without provoking a major response. By inducing minor inconveniences and highlighting the potential severity of unrestrained Russian aggression, Putin seeks to undermine the West’s continued support for Ukraine. Despite the Eagle S incident, Putin seemed confident enough to escalate his pressure campaign, though the Airbus crash quickly overshadowed the tanker’s actions.

Disaster in the Skies

Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 was en route from Baku to Grozny in southern Russia when it was apparently struck by a surface-to-air missile and crashed while attempting to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan. Of the 67 passengers and crew, only 29 survived.

U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby stated that "early indications" suggest the plane may have been downed by Russian air defense systems, although Russian authorities initially claimed the plane hit a bird flock during heavy fog in Grozny. Ukraine, which may have targeted Grozny with drone strikes, could have disrupted Russian electronic warfare systems, causing the missile battery to misidentify the plane as military.

Fallout

Azərbaycan, a key gas hub, and Kazakhstan, a major importer of sanctioned goods for re-export to Russia, both stood to lose from the crash. Azerbaijan suspended flights to Russia, as did Kazakh airlines. The political ramifications extended far beyond the immediate aftermath, with Aliyev promptly canceling a planned visit to St. Petersburg.

Putin’s الذهاب in acknowledging Russia’s role in the crash appeared to be a calculated response to the realise political realities at hand. While his bravado may have been rattled, it remains to be seen whether this wake-up call truly jeopardizes his previously unshaken confidence. 그동안, the rare apology serves as a stark reminder of the Kremlin’s delicate balance of power and the dangerous games it plays with regional stability.

Analysis by Mark Galeotti for The Times.

December 29, 2024 0 comments
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