Europe Faces Gas Supply Uncertainty as Key Transit Agreement With Russia Expires
Europe’s gas supply landscape is set to shift significantly as a crucial transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine expires at the end of this year, Bloomberg reports. If a alternative agreement isn’t reached in the remaining days of 2024, the halt of Russian gas flows through Ukraine presents a set of challenges for an already tight market.
Gas Storage: A Major Concern
Gas traders’ primary worry is the pace at which stocks are drawn down, with European storage levels dwindling to around 75% capacity—levels not seen since last winter. This is worrying not just for the rest of the heating season but also for efforts to replenish stocks later in 2025.
Instability is likely to persist. Summer gas contracts recently surged above those for the 2025-2026 winter, making it more expensive to fill stocks ahead of the next heating season.
The challenge of returning to comfortable storage levels for the winter of 2025-2026 is looming, according to Anatoly Feygin, chief commercial officer of American gas exporter Cheniere Energy Inc.
Russian Supply: Not Completely Cut Off
Even with the loss of Ukrainian transit, Russia can still supply Europe via Turkey. However, Turkey’s capacity cannot fully compensate for the potential shortfall in 2025. Russia also exports liquefied natural gas (LNG). The European Union imported record quantities of Russian LNG this year, although some bloc officials have called for an embargo, there’s still no region-wide ban.
From March, Russian LNG ships will be barred from using European ports to transship their cargoes to other vessels heading outside the EU, potentially trapping more Russian LNG in Europe, according to BloombergNEF.
Europe’s Battle for LNG
As Europe competes more with Asia for LNG cargoes, it may turn to flexible American LNG, which isn’t destination-restricted, Feygin said. Newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump recently urged the EU to buy more American gas, threatening tariffs if they don’t. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also noted that American LNG could help replace Russian supplies. However, several LNG expansion projects worldwide, including in the U.S., face delays. Cheniere’s own Texas venture, for instance, will develop "relatively slowly" by 2025, Feygin said.
Hedge Funds’ Big Bets on Gas
Hedge funds have expanded their presence on Europe’s gas market in recent years, holding record-long positions ahead of 2025—betting on rising prices. Some traders worry that the concentration of such bets could prompt a sell-off, further destabilizing the fragile market.
Europe’s economy is recovering slowly from the 2022 energy crisis, and continued gas price volatility will make it difficult for businesses and households to plan for the future.
