In this framework, in the last week the Cash Cash with Settlement (CCL), jumped 6.5% to $ 135 and the Blue increased $ 6 to $ 138, therefore the gaps reached 87.6%.
According to the consulting firms and financial entities that participated in the Market Expectations Survey (REM), the wholesale dollar, regulated by the monetary authority, will rise $ 12.82 from now to the end of the year, to $ 86.4.
Without yet knowing the final adhesion to the agreement for the restructuring of the debt, which was sealed on August 4, analysts estimated that the Government will try to keep changes in this very sensitive variable for Argentines limited.
Regarding the REM for June, analysts they lowered their devaluation projections, mainly for the last quarter of the year. While in the previous survey a depreciation of 4.9% was estimated for October and another of 4.2% for November, in the REM for July the expected increase for October is 4.4% and that of November is 2, 8%.
In this way, the nominal interannual variation forecast for 2020 is 44.4%. In parallel, the projection for the end of 2021 showed a value of $ 123.2 per dollar, which would mean an annual increase of 42.6%.
Many of the analysts consulted by this medium in recent weeks have been pointing out that once the debt restructuring is closed, there will be a narrowing of the gap. However, in the last hours they began to warn that the back and forth of the Government regarding whether or not the US $ 200 quota for savings was going to be removed increased uncertainty from the market and added gasoline to the parallel dollars.
“The macroeconomic conditions are ripe for a depreciation of the peso” said the director of the DNI consultancy, Marcelo Elizondo, who added that the situation is “aggravated by the shortage of dollars and the very alarm that the Government creates when it says’ it may be that we interrupt the sale of $ 200”.
In line with these words, financial analyst Christian Buteler said: “Last week the Government generated unnecessary noise at the exchange rate with the possibility of suspending the sale of the US $ 200. And for worse, it was in the mouth of the President. That clearly does not help calm the blue dollar and narrow the gap. Clearly it is not in line with reassuring the economy as the Minister of Economy wants ”.
There are also technical conditions that push parallel prices.In this sense, Maximiliano Suárez, from Grupo Bull Market, explained: “There is an arbitration opportunity in the sense that the local law swap opened the door to change bonds in dollars for CER bonds and it is more beneficial to access this way than to do it directly through the market ”.
In this way, the acquisition of dollarized bonds could push financial prices. However, Suárez warned: “But it is no less true that the exchange rate is also arbitrated and there are many dollar bonds that do not enter into the exchange for Boncer and that should function as an anchor or reference value to the implicit exchange rate of the bonds that do enter the exchange. With which the arbitrage effect can explain some temporary discrepancy, but not a trend or an exchange rate level ”.
The Bull Market analyst mentioned that the main reasons for the increases in the MEP and the CCL are linked to “the monetary and fiscal factor and the role of expectations.” And I add: “Even with a super hold on hoarding and the economy stopped, the BCRA restricts imports and threatens to cut the savings quota. Despite this, the drainage of reserves continues, with a level of liquid reserves that no one knows for sure but that is estimated between US $ 4,000 and US $ 8,000 million, well below what a country like Argentina it needs to function ”.
Finally, Suárez explained that “the rates in pesos do not help much either, because although they are close to matching the observed inflation, something that has been demanding for a long time, they do not take into account the role of expectations in economic decisions.”
Now, what can the Government do to stop the gap between the official and the parallels? The chief economist of Fundación Capital, Irina Moroni, said: “A greater supply of foreign currency should be generated, that Anses and the BCRA arbitrate with securities, and generate new instruments in more attractive pesos, with new indices.”
Meanwhile, Fernando Marengo, from Arriazu Macroanalistas, considered: “More gap generates more appetite for dollars of imports and less for liquidating exports, so it ends up impacting reserves. The gap calms when there is no more expectation of depreciation. It may be That it happens because you do things well or because the CCL reaches an excessively high level and the market thinks that it is already very depreciated. “