The International Criminal Court’s (ICC) ongoing investigation into former President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s anti-drug campaign may significantly influence voter behavior and political alliances leading up to the 2028 elections. Analysts suggest that as evidence and testimony emerge, the resulting public scrutiny could weaken the political branding of Duterte allies and encourage voters to seek alternative leadership.
Status of the ICC investigation and recent claims
Speculation regarding the investigation intensified following a June 17 Facebook post by Davao City Representative Paolo Z. Duterte. The congressman claimed a “highly reliable source” informed him that the ICC had issued arrest warrants for Senator Christopher Lawrence “Bong” T. Go and two former police officials connected to the previous administration’s drug war. However, the Department of Justice, the National Bureau of Investigation, the Department of the Interior and Local Government, and the Philippine National Police have all confirmed they have received no official communication regarding such warrants. Senator Go, who is named in public ICC filings as an alleged co-perpetrator, has consistently denied these allegations.
How the investigation could reshape the 2028 elections
Political analysts expect the ICC proceedings to remain a central issue in the lead-up to the 2028 national elections. Edmund S. Tayao, president and CEO of Political Economic Elemental Researchers and Strategists, noted that the trial process will likely keep questions about the previous administration’s policies at the forefront of public discourse. According to Tayao, this could foster general discontent with established figures and potentially elevate alternative candidates who are not associated with the Duterte-era political bloc.
Dennis C. Coronacion, chairman of the University of Santo Tomas Political Science Department, observed that even in the absence of immediate legal action, the reports linking allies to the tribunal could damage their political credibility. Coronacion stated that these developments are likely to have the greatest impact on independent and undecided voters, who may view the international scrutiny as an indicator of unlawful conduct. He added that such narratives could effectively dismantle the political branding that leaders rely on to maintain support.
Public sentiment toward the ICC
Data from the March WR Numero Philippine Public Opinion Monitor survey highlights a polarized electorate regarding the tribunal. The survey found that 59.5% of Filipinos support the former president standing trial at the ICC, while 56% believe his alleged co-perpetrators should face arrest. Public trust in the tribunal remains divided: 35% of respondents expressed trust in the ICC’s ability to conduct a fair trial, 33% expressed distrust, and 32% remained undecided.