New York

The race for control of the U.S. House of Representatives and the speaker’s gavel has been dramatically reset following back-to-back court rulings that have erased Democratic gains in Virginia and created new threats to Black representation in the Deep South.

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries had previously warned Republicans they would regret the congressional redistricting fight. After Democrats counterpunched last month with a redrawn map in Virginia, the net tally of seats gained and lost was essentially a wash. Following that election victory, Jeffries remarked, “F— around and find out.”

However, the Virginia Supreme Court’s decision to toss last month’s election results has blindsided many Democrats. House Speaker Mike Johnson described the Democratic strategy in Virginia as a “crazy overreach” that was rightly rejected, stating, “Fortunately, the plan failed spectacularly.”

The Path to the Speaker’s Gavel

The shifting political landscape serves as a test for Jeffries, who is in line to potentially make history as the first Black speaker of the House. Due to the redistricting fights, Jeffries acknowledged that Democrats may now need to flip six Republican seats to win the majority, rather than the previously expected three.

Despite these setbacks, Jeffries insisted that Democrats remain on track to pick up seats, drawing a comparison to the party’s gains in 2018 during President Donald Trump’s first term. He argued that Republicans are relying on redistricting instead of policy solutions to win, asserting that Trump Republicans “don’t give a damn” about the financial struggles of Americans.

During a closed-door meeting on Wednesday, Jeffries described the situation in existential terms, calling the court rulings against the Virginia measure and the Voting Rights Act “disgusting.” He warned his colleagues that Republicans would campaign with “diabolical intensity” to regain control, noting that Democrats must exceed that with “righteous intensity at all times.” According to a person in the room, Jeffries told the group, “Failure is not an option. We have to win, and we are going to win.”

A National Redistricting Crusade

The current volatility follows a redistricting crusade sparked last summer after President Trump claimed Republicans were “entitled” to five additional GOP seats from Texas. In response, Jeffries and other Democrats decided to fight back rather than take the “high road,” believing the courts might not provide a sufficient check on GOP power plays.

Jeffries’ efforts included:

• Traveling to Austin to join Texas Democrats fighting redistricting plans.
• Standing with lawmakers in Chicago who fled to deny statehouse Republicans a quorum.
• Participating in private meetings with California Democrats to launch a voter initiative that placed five more seats in the Democratic column.
• Picking up one seat in Utah.

This aggressive strategy came with a significant financial cost. An outside group aligned with Jeffries spent approximately $60 million, a large portion of which was spent on Virginia alone. Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist and former deputy director of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, said the situation “crystallizes the election is now a contest between one side that has the money and the maps, and the other that has the voters and the candidates.”

Implications for Black Representation

The battle over maps is now extending into the Deep South, where Republican legislatures are rushing to redraw maps following the ruling in the Voting Rights Act case. These efforts may lead to the elimination of districts held by some of the most senior Black lawmakers in Congress.

Rep. James Clyburn, a veteran Democratic legislator from South Carolina whose own seat is at risk, defended Jeffries, stating, “What the hell, he can’t control the courts. Don’t put that on Jeffries. We won the vote.” Clyburn vowed to run for reelection regardless of how his district is eventually drawn.

Looking Toward 2028

With this year’s maps nearly set, Jeffries has pivoted his focus toward the 2028 election. He described the current situation as an “unprecedented assault on Black political representation, the likes of which we have not seen since the Jim Crow era, the ghost of the Confederacy.”

Jeffries indicated that Democrats will likely redouble their efforts to confront GOP redistricting ahead of the next election, stating that the goal is to ensure a “decisive and overwhelming response in advance of 2028.”