► What is the outcome of this first round of the presidential election?
According to the Polish Election Commission (PKW), outgoing President Andrzej Duda leads with 43.7% of the vote, followed by the liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski who wins 30.3% of the vote. In third place, Szymon Holownia obtained a score of 13.85%, a significant result for this independent candidate who succeeded in “ build something from scratch “According to Frédéric Zalewski, professor-researcher in political science at the University of Nanterre.
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None of the other candidates exceeded the 10% threshold, some weakened by the postponement of the poll due to the coronavirus pandemic, according to the researcher. However, the epidemic has not slowed down the movement of voters. According to the PKW, the voter turnout stands at 64.4%, a higher turnout than in the previous presidential election in 2015 (48.96%).
► How can the carryover of votes be envisaged for the second round?
Andrzej Duda hopes to regain the support of far-right voters for the second round. Their main candidate, the nationalist Krzysztof Bosak won 6.75% of the vote on Sunday June 28. However, the transfer of votes is not ” not automatic “And even if Bosak is very far from the liberals, his electorate could turn to abstention, said Frédéric Zalewski.
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Rafal Trzaskowski must for his part consolidate his campaign and convince new voters to hope to win. Szymon Holownia has already made it clear that he will not be voting for the outgoing president, but to date has not expressed any support for the Liberal candidate. His electorate is far from being acquired for the mayor of Warsaw, underlines the researcher: “ if we take only the ideological criterion, it is closer to the liberals, but it is above all strongly anti-system, it is an unpredictable electorate and that we know little about. »
► What are the main challenges of the election?
« The high turnout shows that there is a very strong stake around these elections, with a cleavage between very traditional values and a more liberal policy. », Underlines Frédéric Zalewski. On the one hand, the conservative Andrzej Duda, supported by the Law and Justice party (PiS), carried out several attacks against the rights of homosexuals during the campaign. Criticized by his European neighbors who believe that his reforms, especially in the justice sector, undermine democracy, the outgoing president is however considered a key ally of his American counterpart, Donald Trump.
In opposition, from the Civic Coalition (KO) party, the mayor of Warsaw has positioned himself as a liberal and europhile candidate, defending the rights of homosexual people and expressing his sympathies for Europe. ” Even if the Polish president has limited powers, if he wins, Trzaskowski would be a pro-European ally “Explains the researcher from the University of Nanterre. His victory would also strike a heavy blow to PiS, creating an institutional blockage, while a re-election of Duda would consolidate the party’s grip on power, at least until the legislative elections scheduled for 2023.