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Over the last few weeks, the X-ray that has begun to emerge from the presidential elections in the United States points to a more than overwhelming victory for Joe Biden, whom the polls indicate as a favorite. But the debacle of four years ago, when Trump prevailed despite all the predictions about Hillary Clinton, causes doubts in the Democratic party.

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One after another, the polls – including those made by media favorable to Donald Trump, such as Fox – speak of more than 10 points of advantage at the national level and put it at the top in almost all the so-called ‘undecided states’, which, given the system electioneers, are the ones who are going to tip the balance in one direction or another.

Among Democrats, however, no one is celebrating. Partly because they do not want to convey an excess of confidence that affects the participation of their voters when the moment of truth arrives. But on the bottom, it is the ghost of the 2016 elections that keeps them awake.

On that occasion, as recalled, Hillary Clinton was also ahead in most polls and ended up losing when three states that were considered ‘safe’ for Democrats – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan – preferred Trump by a narrow margin and gave him the keys to the White House.

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While Clinton won the popular vote by more than 3 million votes, ended up defeated in the Electoral College count, which is the one that counts. But according to a majority of analysts and experts, the picture is very different from four years ago and, for now, clearly favors the former Delaware senator. For several reasons. The first of these, and perhaps the most powerful, is based on pure statistics.

Since 1936, the year in which scientific polls began to be carried out for electoral purposes, no opponent for the White House – that is, a candidate who challenged the president-elect – had enjoyed such leadership at this point in the race. Biden, according to samples from Fox, The Washington Post, ABC and Reuters, he would be taking between 10 and 12 points ahead of Trump and, on average, amasses 52 percent of electoral preferences, compared to 42 percent for the president.

Only Bill Clinton in the 1992 campaign outscored his rival (President George H. Bush) by more than five points with just three weeks before the election. But even this former president never managed to exceed 48 percent of the preferences. Biden, in fact, is the first rival in nearly 100 years to reach this stretch of the race exceeding 50 percent of voting intentions.

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While there were times in 2016 when Hillary scored as much as six points out of Trump in the poll average, she was never able to break that mark. Which, despite what the polls said, indicated that his position was not that strong. The other big difference from the elections of four years ago is that Hillary’s leadership throughout the race was highly variable and at times bordered on the tie. In the case of Biden has consistently been ahead of Trump in the eight months since he emerged as the Democratic nominee.. And always by a difference of more than five points.

The pollsters also say they have learned the lesson of 2016 and their models are much more conservative this time, giving more weight to factors such as the white vote without university education, which was not discriminated before in the samples and ended up being key in Trump’s victory.

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The second piece to this puzzle is that Biden, for a number of reasons, appears to be a better candidate than Hillary. On the one hand, Clinton came to those elections seeking to succeed a president of his own party who had been in power for eight years (Barack Obama). And that usually translates into wear and tear and a longing for change. In addition, with the purpose of becoming the first woman president in a country that still maintains prejudices against that possibility and that reduced votes among the male population.

To that should be added his own image. Clinton was not only deeply disliked by Republicans because of her controversial years as first lady, senator and secretary of state, but among independents and some Democrats, in fact, her positive image never exceeded 50 percent. Biden doesn’t carry any of those weaknesses. Conversely, is seen as an alternative after four controversial years of Trump, and its favorability has always been on positive ground with Democrats and independents.

In addition, it competes in a context in which who is on the defensive is a president criticized for handling the covid-19 pandemic, the issue that most worries Americans, and facing an economic crisis of enormous proportions.
All of these elements have resulted in a kind of ‘blue wave’ that threatens to sweep away even the Republicans in their battle to retain the Senate.

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Proof of this is in the funds that the campaigns have been collecting through donations. In the last two months, Biden has received nearly twice the resources of Trump. Which shows a degree of enthusiasm among Democrats that did not exist in 2016.

“One of the reasons many people did not vote in 2016 was because neither candidate met their expectations and neither did they feel that their lives could be altered by the winner. On this occasion, and after four years of Trump, there is a clear distinction between what the two options represent. And that has generated a lot of energy, especially among Democrats who want to end their presidency, “says Patrick Murray, director of the electoral project at Monmouth University.

The third axis of this analysis, and one that explains Biden’s strength at this point in his career, is Trump himself and what his four years in the White House have been. After his surprising triumph in 2016, the president had the option of expanding his voter base by betting on a more centrist government. That, in general, is what administrations that come to power without a majority vote do. Trump, on the other hand, always bet on the same base and issues that led him to the presidency. And that has had a huge impact on his popularity and approval numbers.

The president is, in fact, the only president in the history of the United States who has never had the support of the majority. Their highest number, according to polls, is from two years ago and only reached 46 percent. A strategy that appears to have reduced support in three key segments of the electorate: the independent, the vote of the old people 65 years old and women.

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In the case of independents, and according to a study by the Pew Research Center, a majority of them ended up favoring Trump four years ago by a margin of seven points. But this time that difference favors Biden by 15 points. According to Larry Sabato, from the University of Virginia, this is a group of voters who gave the Republican the opportunity thinking that he would move to the center once he felt the weight of occupying the Oval Office but that now, four controversial years later , has begun to distance itself.

The case of the elderly is also eloquent. In the last four elections it has been a group that has always favored Republicans over Democrats. And in 2016 he did the same with Trump. But according to polls by The Washington Post and ABC, this time they are leaning towards Biden and margins that reach up to 10 points (55 vs. 45 on average). Since it is the group most vulnerable to the coronavirus, it would be billing the president for handling the pandemic.

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And then there are the women. While they tend to favor Democrats and in 2016 they preferred Hillary by 13 points (57 vs. 43), the difference in 2020 is an average of 30 points according to the most recent polls. If that distance is maintained until Election Day, your vote, alone, would be enough to give Biden victory.

Of course, the race still has several weeks to go and anything could happen. Especially if one takes into account that the elections will be defined by a group of six or eight states where the difference between Trump and Biden is narrower and small movements of the electorate could affect the results. Nor is it known whether the Republicans’ alleged efforts to suppress the vote (there are reports of this across the country) will have an impact when it comes to adding up. What is clear, at least for the moment, is that Joe Biden is the favorite and has everything served to win the next elections in the United States.

SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI
EL TIEMPO correspondent
WASHINGTON
On Twitter: @ sergom68